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2025-07-29 16:33:00
[The Crossroads of the Krona: Economic Data Tearing the Central Bank's Decision?] ⑴ On the afternoon of July 29th, Beijing time, the Swedish Central Bank is facing an unprecedented interest rate dilemma: sluggish economic growth and high inflation coexist. ⑵ Sweden's second-quarter economic growth data is worrying, with an increase of only 0.1% from the previous quarter, far below the average forecast of 0.3% in a Reuters poll, and significantly lower than the Swedish Central Bank's own expectations. ⑶ Despite weak economic growth, June inflation data was unexpectedly strong, with CPIF rising 2.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than the Swedish Central Bank's forecast of 2.4%. ⑷ This set of contradictory data reinforces the Swedish Central Bank's reason for keeping interest rates unchanged at its August meeting, making it caught between stimulating growth and curbing inflation. ⑸ The favorable interest rate differential is the core driving force behind the Swedish krona's bullishness, and this trend is expected to continue unless the European Central Bank takes unexpected policy changes. 6. Technical analysis shows that EUR/SEK is expected to continue its downward trend, targeting key Fibonacci retracement levels, including the 38.2% retracement level at 11.1271 and the 50% retracement level at 11.0635. 7. Furthermore, key lows such as 11.1150 on July 11 and 11.0320 on June 26 also provide bearish targets for EUR/SEK.
