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2025-07-29 16:58:45
【The US-Japan bulls are approaching 150! Will political turmoil trigger the nuclear button of the foreign exchange market?】 ⑴ USD/JPY hit a high of 148.65 in the Asian market, aiming at the key resistance level of 149.19, the high point in May. At 00:56 on July 30, Beijing time, it still held the support band of 147.95/148.00. ⑵ The crisis of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration continued to ferment, and political uncertainty became the biggest drag on the yen. The short camp refused to close its positions easily. ⑶ The corporate settlement window at the end of the month strengthened the demand for the US dollar. Historical data showed that the average fluctuation range of the US dollar against the yen during this period expanded to 0.8%. ⑷ The technical side showed a step-by-step upward attack pattern. The resistance level of 148.65 was tested three times without breaking, but the MACD column remained positive for 12 consecutive hours. ⑸ The internal differences of the Federal Open Market Committee on the September rate cut intensified. If the Federal Reserve releases a dovish signal tonight, it may help the exchange rate break through the 149.62 option barrier. (6) The implied volatility curve shows that the pricing of one-week options suddenly jumped by 23%, warning that a breakout may occur in the next five trading days.
