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2025-07-29 17:11:56
[Dollar Peak Alert: Undercurrents of Dissent and the Eve of a Storm During Earnings Season?] ⑴ Although the US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.807 on Tuesday, hitting a one-month high of 99.048 during intraday trading, Monex Europe analysts point out that the dollar's rally following the US-EU trade agreement may not be sustainable. ⑵ This week's US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement could backfire on the dollar if it triggers a bond market sell-off. ⑶ More importantly, although the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, Governors Bowman and Waller are likely to vote against it, marking the first time in more than three decades that two Fed officials have dissented. ⑷ This rare disagreement may signal deeper deliberations within the Fed regarding the path of monetary policy, which will have a subtle impact on market sentiment. ⑸ Analysts warn that given the multiple upcoming risk events, caution is advised against chasing the dollar higher at this time. ⑹ While digesting the trade agreement, the market is shifting its focus to domestic US policy signals and liquidity changes. These combined factors suggest that the dollar may face downward pressure.
