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2025-07-29 17:44:44
[China Merchants Fund Q3 Strategy Conference: Price Divergence Continues, Pressure on Exports Exists, but Financial Data Recovers] ⑴ The China Merchants Fund Strategy Conference on July 29th noted that the current price structure shows a diverging trend, with stronger downstream consumption (CPI supported by the trade-in policy) and weaker industrial products, with real estate investment showing signs of weakness. ⑵ Exports, despite exceeding expectations in the first half of the year, face dual pressures in the second half of the year: the expiration of US tariff exemptions in August and the impact of the Section 232 investigation. This, coupled with the fading of the "export rush," may lead to a decline in growth in the third quarter. ⑶ Financial data was strong, with the expansion of government debt driving stable growth in social financing in June, and both corporate and retail credit recovering. We anticipate continued momentum in the dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies.
