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2025-07-29 17:46:05
[Shocking! Deutsche Bank Withdraws ECB Rate Cut Forecast, Signaling a 2026 Rate Hike?] ⑴ On the afternoon of July 29th, Beijing time, Deutsche Bank became the latest institution to withdraw its forecast for further ECB rate cuts. ⑵ Deutsche Bank went a step further, betting that following the conclusion of a US-EU tariff agreement, the ECB's next policy move would be a rate hike at the end of 2026. ⑶ A week earlier, Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas had withdrawn their forecasts for rate cuts this year, and HSBC reiterated that the ECB had completed its rate-cutting cycle. ⑷ BNP Paribas expects the ECB to raise rates in the fourth quarter of 2026. ⑸ Deutsche Bank analysts noted that with the trade agreement reached, trade policy no longer serves as a rationale for further ECB rate cuts, and "further easing is now a risk scenario." ⑹ Last week, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 2% and offered a moderately optimistic assessment of the eurozone economy, raising investor concerns about further easing. ⑺ Although traders still expect the ECB to cut interest rates twice more to 1.85% before December, market expectations of a rate hike before September 2026 are also beginning to emerge.
