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Is a Storm Coming? Emerging Market Currencies Fall Across the Board, Trump's Tariff Comments and US Data Trigger Double Alerts in the Market. ⑴ On the afternoon of July 29th, Beijing time, most emerging market currencies fell against the strengthening US dollar, and stock markets were mixed. Investors were closely watching upcoming US economic data, while the deadline for Trump's tariff comments approached. ⑵ The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.3% for the third consecutive trading day, reaching its lowest level since late June. ⑶ The US dollar index rose 0.2%, hovering near a five-week high, after rising 1% the previous day as the US-EU trade deal boosted the dollar. ⑷ Most Asian currencies weakened against the US dollar, with the South African rand down 0.4%, poised for its fourth consecutive day of decline, while the Turkish lira was little changed. ⑸ European emerging market currencies weakened against the euro, with the Hungarian forint falling 0.8%, poised for its biggest single-day drop since April 11th, after the government slashed its 2025 growth forecast from 2.5% to 1%. ⑹ The Polish zloty fell 0.4%. The Polish Prime Minister said that preliminary estimates show that Trump's tariff remarks may cost Poland about 8 billion zlotys (about 2.16 billion US dollars). ⑺ The Russian ruble fell 1.3% against the US dollar after Trump shortened the Russian armistice period and threatened to impose tariffs of 15% to 20% on trading partners if a separate agreement is not reached. ⑻ Despite the negative impact at the macro level, Jefferies Chief European Economist Mohit Kumar believes that the world can withstand a tariff level of around 15%. However, the market needs to be wary of possible weakness in August data. ⑼ Regional stock markets were mixed, with Polish and Romanian stock markets rebounding 1% and 0.2% respectively, and South African stock markets rising 0.6%, but the MSCI Global Emerging Markets Stock Index still fell 0.3%.