Crude oil trading reminder: Supply-side concerns push oil prices upward, waiting for box pressure test in the short term
2025-07-30 09:54:04
In early trading on Wednesday, Brent crude futures rose 0.19% to $72.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.03% to $69.23 a barrel. Both contracts closed at their highest levels since June 20 on Tuesday.
Trump said on Tuesday that if Russia does not push for an end to the conflict within the next 10-12 days, the United States will implement measures including 100% secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners, which would be significantly earlier than the previous 50-day grace period.
ING analysts noted: "If the 100% secondary tariff takes effect, the oil market will undergo drastic changes, and many major buyers, especially important trading partners of the United States, will be reluctant to continue purchasing Russian crude oil."
Analysts believe that even if OPEC+ gradually relaxes its production cuts, a supply-demand gap may still appear in the market in the worst case scenario.
Asian countries and India have different attitudes
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant warned Asian countries could face high tariffs if they continue to buy large amounts of Russian crude oil during trade talks with the European Union in Stockholm.
“It is unlikely that Asian countries will fully comply with U.S. sanctions, but India has indicated it will cooperate, which could result in up to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil exports being affected,” JPMorgan analysts said.
US-EU tariff deal eases economic concerns
The United States and the European Union have avoided a further escalation of trade concerns by reaching an agreement to impose a 15% tariff on European imports, easing pressure on the economic growth outlook and providing additional support for oil prices.
In addition, foreign partners of Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, are still awaiting U.S. approval to resume operations in the sanctioned country. If negotiations make progress, some supply could return to the market, potentially easing some upward pressure on prices.
The current daily chart of US crude oil (WTI) shows that prices have successfully broken through the downtrend line dating back to June and are now firmly above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a short-term trend shift from weak to strong. Regarding technical indicators, the MACD fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross, the momentum bar continues to expand, and the RSI indicator is near 62 but not in overbought territory, indicating continued upward momentum.
The key resistance level above is around $71.50. If it breaks through, it is expected to rise further to $74.00. The primary support level below is at $68.00. If it falls below, it will test the $66.50 line.
Editor's opinion:
The core factor behind this round of oil price increases is the sharp increase in expectations of supply tightening. The Trump administration's shortening of its sanctions on Russia has increased policy pressure on major importing countries, especially Asian countries and India.
If Russian exports are restricted, it will directly increase the global market deficit. However, considering OPEC+ may take this opportunity to adjust its production cuts and the uncertainty of Venezuelan supply, oil prices may fluctuate at high levels. Technically, if US crude oil breaks through $71.50, the short-term upward trend will be further strengthened; if it falls below $68, there is a risk of a pullback.
Trump said on Tuesday that if Russia does not push for an end to the conflict within the next 10-12 days, the United States will implement measures including 100% secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners, which would be significantly earlier than the previous 50-day grace period.
ING analysts noted: "If the 100% secondary tariff takes effect, the oil market will undergo drastic changes, and many major buyers, especially important trading partners of the United States, will be reluctant to continue purchasing Russian crude oil."
Analysts believe that even if OPEC+ gradually relaxes its production cuts, a supply-demand gap may still appear in the market in the worst case scenario.
Asian countries and India have different attitudes
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant warned Asian countries could face high tariffs if they continue to buy large amounts of Russian crude oil during trade talks with the European Union in Stockholm.
“It is unlikely that Asian countries will fully comply with U.S. sanctions, but India has indicated it will cooperate, which could result in up to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil exports being affected,” JPMorgan analysts said.
US-EU tariff deal eases economic concerns
The United States and the European Union have avoided a further escalation of trade concerns by reaching an agreement to impose a 15% tariff on European imports, easing pressure on the economic growth outlook and providing additional support for oil prices.
In addition, foreign partners of Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, are still awaiting U.S. approval to resume operations in the sanctioned country. If negotiations make progress, some supply could return to the market, potentially easing some upward pressure on prices.
The current daily chart of US crude oil (WTI) shows that prices have successfully broken through the downtrend line dating back to June and are now firmly above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a short-term trend shift from weak to strong. Regarding technical indicators, the MACD fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross, the momentum bar continues to expand, and the RSI indicator is near 62 but not in overbought territory, indicating continued upward momentum.
The key resistance level above is around $71.50. If it breaks through, it is expected to rise further to $74.00. The primary support level below is at $68.00. If it falls below, it will test the $66.50 line.
Editor's opinion:
The core factor behind this round of oil price increases is the sharp increase in expectations of supply tightening. The Trump administration's shortening of its sanctions on Russia has increased policy pressure on major importing countries, especially Asian countries and India.
If Russian exports are restricted, it will directly increase the global market deficit. However, considering OPEC+ may take this opportunity to adjust its production cuts and the uncertainty of Venezuelan supply, oil prices may fluctuate at high levels. Technically, if US crude oil breaks through $71.50, the short-term upward trend will be further strengthened; if it falls below $68, there is a risk of a pullback.
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