Market wait-and-see sentiment intensified before the Federal Reserve meeting, and gold prices remained slightly volatile.
2025-07-30 13:52:50
Gold prices remained in a narrow range of fluctuations during the Asian session on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly after hitting a one-month high the previous day, providing some support for gold prices.
However, the upward momentum of gold prices is limited as the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% and may release more hawkish signals in its policy statement and Powell's press conference.
Market data shows that the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is as high as 97%.
Easing trade concerns and a rebound in U.S. consumer confidence data also curbed safe-haven demand. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July, up from 95.2 the previous month, suggesting a possible rebound in consumption, supporting economic activity.
The market is focused on the upcoming release of the US ADP employment data, preliminary second-quarter GDP data, as well as the core PCE price index and non-farm payrolls report (NFP) later this week. If these data show increasing economic resilience, it may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period, thereby curbing the rebound in gold prices.
On a daily basis, gold prices dipped to around $3,300 on Monday, hitting a three-week low before rebounding, providing short-term support. However, the price remains below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting medium-term weakness.
The H4 chart shows that gold prices have recently fallen below the 100-period moving average ($3,345) and are under pressure. The MACD and RSI indicators remain bearish, and any rebound could be seen as a correction opportunity. If gold prices continue to be blocked below $3,345, we should be wary of a retest of the $3,300 support level. If this fails, it could fall further to the $3,260-3,255 range (corresponding to the 100-day moving average).
A breakout above $3,345 and a sustained hold could trigger short-covering, pushing gold prices back to the $3,367-3,368 range. Further gains could test the $3,400 mark, or even the strong resistance of $3,434-3,435. A breakout above this resistance range could break the short-term bearish trend and pave the way for a potential push towards the all-time high of $3,500.
Editor's opinion:
Gold prices are currently oscillating in a policy-sensitive period, with the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's comments particularly important. If the Fed unexpectedly takes a dovish stance, or hints at an early rate cut, gold prices could experience a breakout rebound. However, if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, gold prices will face downward pressure. Technically, $3,345 represents a crucial turning point in the short-term price direction; a break above or below this level will determine the market's trajectory in the coming days.
However, the upward momentum of gold prices is limited as the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% and may release more hawkish signals in its policy statement and Powell's press conference.
Market data shows that the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is as high as 97%.
Easing trade concerns and a rebound in U.S. consumer confidence data also curbed safe-haven demand. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July, up from 95.2 the previous month, suggesting a possible rebound in consumption, supporting economic activity.
The market is focused on the upcoming release of the US ADP employment data, preliminary second-quarter GDP data, as well as the core PCE price index and non-farm payrolls report (NFP) later this week. If these data show increasing economic resilience, it may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period, thereby curbing the rebound in gold prices.
On a daily basis, gold prices dipped to around $3,300 on Monday, hitting a three-week low before rebounding, providing short-term support. However, the price remains below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting medium-term weakness.
The H4 chart shows that gold prices have recently fallen below the 100-period moving average ($3,345) and are under pressure. The MACD and RSI indicators remain bearish, and any rebound could be seen as a correction opportunity. If gold prices continue to be blocked below $3,345, we should be wary of a retest of the $3,300 support level. If this fails, it could fall further to the $3,260-3,255 range (corresponding to the 100-day moving average).
A breakout above $3,345 and a sustained hold could trigger short-covering, pushing gold prices back to the $3,367-3,368 range. Further gains could test the $3,400 mark, or even the strong resistance of $3,434-3,435. A breakout above this resistance range could break the short-term bearish trend and pave the way for a potential push towards the all-time high of $3,500.
Editor's opinion:
Gold prices are currently oscillating in a policy-sensitive period, with the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's comments particularly important. If the Fed unexpectedly takes a dovish stance, or hints at an early rate cut, gold prices could experience a breakout rebound. However, if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, gold prices will face downward pressure. Technically, $3,345 represents a crucial turning point in the short-term price direction; a break above or below this level will determine the market's trajectory in the coming days.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
