WTI Crude Oil Hits Key Resistance Level, Can Bulls Break Through?
2025-07-30 19:45:42
WTI crude oil futures retreated on Wednesday (July 30) after failing to break through the key resistance level of $69.59, which has limited gains for two consecutive trading days and is a key trigger point for determining directional momentum. Prices are still consolidating in a range, awaiting the emergence of a breakout catalyst.
Russia's crude oil export pressure continues, and geopolitical risk premium rises
Traders are closely watching U.S. President Donald Trump's tightening ultimatum to Russia, demanding progress on ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine within 10 to 12 days. The U.S. administration is threatening to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on countries that continue to trade oil with Russia.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase expect India to comply with the US request, which could result in the displacement of 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil exports. US Treasury Secretary Benson said that if some countries continue to import Russian crude oil, they may face high tariffs, which increases the risk of tariff escalation.
John Evans of PVM noted that even if Saudi Arabia and OPEC intervene, the resulting global supply gap will take time to fill. This lag provides further support for short-term oil prices. Vanda Insights estimates that a risk premium of $4-5 is currently built into each barrel of crude oil.
Mexico prioritizes domestic refining, with exports plummeting
Adding to supply pressures: In June, Pemex's crude oil exports plummeted 39% year-on-year to 458,103 barrels per day (bpd), the lowest monthly level since records began in 1990. This decline is consistent with Mexico's ongoing push for energy sovereignty and prioritization of domestic refining. Its crude oil production remains capped at 1.6 million bpd, well below the company's stated target of 1.8 million bpd.
Pemex also cut its refined product imports by 38% last month as its new Olmeca refinery consumed more feedstock. While the company plans to boost output through private partnerships, its implementation remains limited.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)
Currently, U.S. crude oil is consolidating at a high level, with mixed technical signals of bullish and bearish signals.
The RSI reading of 57.58 and its flat trend suggest a relatively balanced bullish and bearish outlook, lacking clear directional guidance. The MACD-Histogram is showing initial red bars, signaling a short-term bottoming rebound, but the red bars are weak, and it remains to be seen whether they can be sustained.
In the short term, pay attention to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 66.86 support. If it holds and the MACD red column continues, the price is expected to break through the 69.59 resistance; if it falls below 66.86, it is likely to fall to the 64.13 support.
The market maintains a cautiously bullish tone given ongoing geopolitical risks, increasing supply constraints and expected inventory draws.
Russia's crude oil export pressure continues, and geopolitical risk premium rises
Traders are closely watching U.S. President Donald Trump's tightening ultimatum to Russia, demanding progress on ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine within 10 to 12 days. The U.S. administration is threatening to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on countries that continue to trade oil with Russia.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase expect India to comply with the US request, which could result in the displacement of 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil exports. US Treasury Secretary Benson said that if some countries continue to import Russian crude oil, they may face high tariffs, which increases the risk of tariff escalation.
John Evans of PVM noted that even if Saudi Arabia and OPEC intervene, the resulting global supply gap will take time to fill. This lag provides further support for short-term oil prices. Vanda Insights estimates that a risk premium of $4-5 is currently built into each barrel of crude oil.
Mexico prioritizes domestic refining, with exports plummeting
Adding to supply pressures: In June, Pemex's crude oil exports plummeted 39% year-on-year to 458,103 barrels per day (bpd), the lowest monthly level since records began in 1990. This decline is consistent with Mexico's ongoing push for energy sovereignty and prioritization of domestic refining. Its crude oil production remains capped at 1.6 million bpd, well below the company's stated target of 1.8 million bpd.
Pemex also cut its refined product imports by 38% last month as its new Olmeca refinery consumed more feedstock. While the company plans to boost output through private partnerships, its implementation remains limited.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)
Currently, U.S. crude oil is consolidating at a high level, with mixed technical signals of bullish and bearish signals.
The RSI reading of 57.58 and its flat trend suggest a relatively balanced bullish and bearish outlook, lacking clear directional guidance. The MACD-Histogram is showing initial red bars, signaling a short-term bottoming rebound, but the red bars are weak, and it remains to be seen whether they can be sustained.
In the short term, pay attention to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 66.86 support. If it holds and the MACD red column continues, the price is expected to break through the 69.59 resistance; if it falls below 66.86, it is likely to fall to the 64.13 support.
The market maintains a cautiously bullish tone given ongoing geopolitical risks, increasing supply constraints and expected inventory draws.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
