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2025-07-30 20:56:57
[The Economic Rebound: The Truth Behind the "Inflated" GDP Data and the Fed's Decision] ⑴ On July 30th, Beijing time, the US economy rebounded unexpectedly in the second quarter, with an annualized growth rate of 3.0%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.0%. ⑵ This reversal was primarily due to a sharp decline in imports, rather than strong domestic demand growth. ⑶ GDP contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, driven by a surge in imports triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑷ Despite the impressive second-quarter GDP data, economists generally consider it "inflated" because core domestic private purchases of final sales grew by only 1.2%, down from 1.9% in the first quarter. ⑸ This suggests a slower economic growth trajectory than in recent years and a lack of momentum in the domestic demand engine. ⑹ Furthermore, business investment plummeted by 15.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a reduction in inventory and equipment purchases. ⑺ Regarding inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred PCE price index rose by 2.1% in the second quarter, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.5%, both slowing from the first quarter, providing the Fed with more room for policy considerations. ⑻ The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, but employment and inflation data will remain key guides for its future decisions.
