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2025-07-31 10:50:54
Australia's final retail sales report is strong. Stronger-than-expected Australian retail sales data contradicts recent economic trends that suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut interest rates as early as next month. June retail sales rose 1.2% month-over-month, significantly exceeding expectations of a 0.4% increase. May's data was revised upward from 0.3% to 0.5%. Notably, this will be the final retail sales report released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Going forward, the agency will shift to a "household expenditure indicator" to provide a more comprehensive picture of consumption. Currently, money markets are almost certain that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates at its August meeting, its third cut of the year. However, earlier this month, the bank unexpectedly held interest rates steady, surprising traders and economists. RBA Governor Andrew Bullock stated at the time that the committee would want to see quarterly inflation data before making a decision, and data released this week suggest easing inflationary pressures. Retail sales data has traditionally been a key indicator for monetary policy, but the ABS noted in a statement this week that its importance has been declining.
