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2025-07-31 21:14:01
Why was the market indifferent to the unexpectedly strong data? ⑴ June PCE data was released, and the monthly increase met expectations, but the annual figure exceeded expectations. The core PCE annual rate also exceeded market consensus. This suggests that inflationary pressures persist and have not subsided as quickly as the market had hoped. ⑵ Initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell, indicating that the labor market remains strong. Furthermore, the unexpected increase in employment costs in the second quarter further demonstrated the resilience of the labor market, which should have been a sign of cooling market sentiment. ⑶ Despite this, US stock index futures continued to rise, the US dollar strengthened, and gold and crude oil prices diverged. The market seemed unusually calm in the face of the unexpectedly strong inflation and employment data. ⑷ Following the data release, federal funds rate futures indicated a 61% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged in September, virtually unchanged from before the data was released. Market expectations for a rate cut this year have not changed significantly, reflecting traders' unwavering confidence in the future policy direction. 5. Technology and communication services sectors led gains in pre-market trading, which may be related to the positive AI-related financial reports of certain companies, indicating that investors are chasing growth stories with greater certainty rather than simply being affected by fluctuations in macroeconomic data.
