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2025-08-01 11:04:12
[International Oil Prices Remain Steady, Amidst the Dual Tensions of Trade Policy and Geopolitical Risks] 1. International oil prices were largely flat in early trading on Friday, with Brent crude down 0.16% to around $71.66 per barrel and WTI down 0.06% to around $69.21 per barrel. Despite weekly gains of 4.9% and 6.4%, respectively, the market is cautiously assessing the potential impact of new US tariffs on global energy demand. US President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on dozens of economies, including Canada and India, sparking market concerns about slowing economic growth. 2. Analysts warn that the new tariffs could push up commodity prices and dampen economic activity, thereby weakening oil consumption. This concern partially offsets support from Russian supply risks. The Trump administration has threatened China and India with a 100% secondary tariff if they continue to purchase Russian crude oil. JPMorgan Chase estimates that this move could impact Russia's seaborne exports by 2.75 million barrels per day. Market insiders pointed out that sanctions on Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, may lead to a supply gap, but policy implementation faces real challenges. 3. The current oil market presents a clear pattern of bull-bear game: on the one hand, the economic slowdown expectations brought about by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged and the impact of tariff policies are bearish; on the other hand, the risk of obstruction of Russian crude oil exports constitutes a strong support. Traders said that in the short term, oil prices may remain volatile, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the performance of US economic data and the evolution of the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The strengthening of any factor may disrupt the current balance.
