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2025-08-01 11:38:10
USD/JPY Breaks Through Key Resistance, Possible Further Upside] 1. The USD/JPY exchange rate has continued to strengthen recently, successfully breaking through the 200-day moving average and the psychologically important 150.00 level, signaling a possible reversal of the downtrend since January. Market analysis suggests that amid diverging policy stances between the US and Japanese central banks, the dollar could gain further upward momentum unless Japanese authorities implement new intervention measures. 2. Technically, USD/JPY has rebounded from its April 22 low of 139.88 and is currently approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 151.62. This trend stands in stark contrast to the previous correction, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment. Although both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan maintained interest rates, the Fed's less-than-expected dovish stance and the Bank of Japan's relatively mild hawkish stance provided support for the US dollar. 3. Market positioning data shows that as of July 22, investors still held significant net long yen and long euro contracts. The unwinding of these positions could further boost the dollar's gains. In addition, the knock-out options triggered by Japanese importers above the 150.00 mark may also increase the demand for US dollar buying. However, Tokyo market participants warned that if the exchange rate continues to climb to around 155, it may trigger intervention by the Japanese or US Treasury departments.
