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2025-08-01 13:13:53
[EUR/USD fluctuates narrowly, awaiting key data guidance] 1. EUR/USD edged up 0.05% during Friday's Asian session, trading in a tight range of 1.1405-1.0428. Markets remained cautious ahead of the release of US non-farm payroll data later that evening, while Eurozone PMI and core CPI data will also provide key clues for exchange rate trends. 2. The exchange rate remains in a downward trend, with the 5-day, 10-day, and 21-day moving averages all trending downward, maintaining a bearish trend on the daily chart. Resistance is anticipated at Wednesday's high of 1.1572 and the 21-day moving average of 1.1645. Support lies below, at the early June low of 1.1372 and the 61.8% retracement of the May-July rally at 1.1357. Notably, €2.651 billion in options expire in the 1.1400/05 area, potentially constraining short-term trends. 3. Analysts note that following the impact of US tariffs, market focus has shifted to fundamentals. The comparison between Eurozone economic data and the US ISM manufacturing PMI will be a key factor affecting the exchange rate. If the Eurozone data is strong, it may help the euro to hold its current support level; conversely, strong US employment data may increase downward pressure on the euro.
