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2025-08-01 13:30:23
US job growth expected to slow in July, but rate cut expectations remain uncertain. 1. July's US non-farm payroll data is expected to show slowing job growth, with new jobs likely falling to 110,000, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, but remain within the narrow range seen since May 2024. Despite signs of a cooling labor market, analysts generally believe this is not enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to immediately cut interest rates, especially given the inflationary pressures fueled by new tariffs. 2. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, Chairman Powell's comments dampened market expectations for a September rate cut. Economists point out that uncertainty caused by tariffs is impacting business hiring decisions, while reduced immigration has lowered the threshold for maintaining job growth. EY-Parthenon's chief economist stated that the current data may reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see stance, but a significant downward revision to subsequent employment data could still prompt a policy shift. 3. The market has postponed the expected interest rate cut from September to October. Some analysts warn that the Fed's window for implementing loose policies is narrowing as tariffs push up prices. However, there are also views that if the job market deteriorates more than expected, the Fed may still act earlier.
