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2025-08-01 14:44:21
USD/CNH retreated from its 100-day moving average in early Friday trading, with the market awaiting guidance from the non-farm payroll data. 1. The USD/CNH pair retreated from its 100-day moving average (7.2219) to 7.2165, suggesting a pause in bullish activity at key resistance. Market analysts suggest the exchange rate may find support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 7.2006, which could attract bargain-hunting. 2. Today's S&P China Manufacturing PMI showed contracting activity in July. Combined with the Chinese government's crackdown on involuted competition in the new energy sector, this could put short-term pressure on RMB demand. Policy news suggests that sectors such as photovoltaics, batteries, and electric vehicles will face stricter regulations to curb disorderly price wars. 49. 3. Market focus shifted to the evening's US non-farm payroll report, with estimates of 110,000 new jobs added in July and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. If the data is weaker than expected, it may strengthen the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, dragging down the US dollar and supporting the RMB; conversely, strong data may push the US dollar to continue its recent rise, further testing the resilience of the RMB. 4. From a technical perspective, if the exchange rate effectively falls below the 7.20 mark, it may fall to the support near 7.18; conversely, if it stabilizes above the 100-day moving average, it may resume the upward trend and challenge the 7.23-7.25 area.
