Focus: Will the non-farm payroll report stimulate Trump again? Forecasts imply weak expectations
2025-08-01 17:05:08
The highly anticipated US July non-farm payroll report will be released on Friday (August 1, 2025, 8:30 PM). According to forecasts from over 67 renowned international investment banks and financial experts, the non-farm payroll change is expected to increase by 110,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase by 3.8%. A weak non-farm payroll figure of 110,000 is expected, but will this intensify Trump's pressure on Powell to cut interest rates?
Figure 1 shows the supposedly smarter forecast for the non-farm payrolls: an increase of 110,000, a rare occurrence that completely matches the median forecast. Previously, the Smarter forecast was slightly higher, and the released figure was significantly higher than expected. This time, the two are consistent, signaling a neutral reading. However, Figure 5 shows that some of the latest "non-farm payroll leading indicators" suggest that the non-farm payroll may be weak overall.
[This article’s specially prepared chart shows each institution’s expected data, as well as the expected mean, mode, maximum, minimum, and three confidence level prediction intervals calculated based on the survey results. See the table below for details.
As shown in Figure 1 below, there are 27 institutions/bigwigs that gave expected values for the "three indicators".
In Figure 2 below, there are 39 institutions/bigwigs who only gave expected values for two indicators, and 1 institution/bigwig who only gave expected values for one indicator (Source: Huitong Finance special chart).
In Figure 3 below, based on the principle of normal distribution, we can calculate the expected intervals corresponding to confidence levels of 68.2%, 95.5%, and 99.7%.
Figure 4 below shows you the details of the non-farm payroll report and its sub-items that will be released tonight on the economic calendar page:
Figure 5 below shows the latest release of the US Non-Farm Leading Indicator. The data is generally positive for gold and silver, suggesting a weakening US job market (see Huitong Finance's Non-Farm Leading Indicator for more details).
It's important to note that even the most authoritative forecasts can be inaccurate. In the past, non-farm payroll results have been stronger than even the strongest expectations. However, investors base their market positions on these forecasts, and market reactions are influenced by these expectations, influencing the direction of market fluctuations and sentiment. Therefore, it's still essential to research forecasts in advance.
This article is an original analysis by Huitong Finance. All rights reserved. It is for reference only and should not be used as a basis for trading.
Figure 1 shows the supposedly smarter forecast for the non-farm payrolls: an increase of 110,000, a rare occurrence that completely matches the median forecast. Previously, the Smarter forecast was slightly higher, and the released figure was significantly higher than expected. This time, the two are consistent, signaling a neutral reading. However, Figure 5 shows that some of the latest "non-farm payroll leading indicators" suggest that the non-farm payroll may be weak overall.
[This article’s specially prepared chart shows each institution’s expected data, as well as the expected mean, mode, maximum, minimum, and three confidence level prediction intervals calculated based on the survey results. See the table below for details.
As shown in Figure 1 below, there are 27 institutions/bigwigs that gave expected values for the "three indicators".
In Figure 2 below, there are 39 institutions/bigwigs who only gave expected values for two indicators, and 1 institution/bigwig who only gave expected values for one indicator (Source: Huitong Finance special chart).
In Figure 3 below, based on the principle of normal distribution, we can calculate the expected intervals corresponding to confidence levels of 68.2%, 95.5%, and 99.7%.
Figure 4 below shows you the details of the non-farm payroll report and its sub-items that will be released tonight on the economic calendar page:
Figure 5 below shows the latest release of the US Non-Farm Leading Indicator. The data is generally positive for gold and silver, suggesting a weakening US job market (see Huitong Finance's Non-Farm Leading Indicator for more details).
It's important to note that even the most authoritative forecasts can be inaccurate. In the past, non-farm payroll results have been stronger than even the strongest expectations. However, investors base their market positions on these forecasts, and market reactions are influenced by these expectations, influencing the direction of market fluctuations and sentiment. Therefore, it's still essential to research forecasts in advance.
This article is an original analysis by Huitong Finance. All rights reserved. It is for reference only and should not be used as a basis for trading.
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