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2025-08-01 18:30:40
Trump's Trade Stick: A "Butterfly Effect" in the Oil Market? ⑴ Trump's demand that India stop importing Russian oil could threaten billions of dollars in Russian revenue. ⑵ India has become the largest buyer of Russian oil since 2022, purchasing up to 2 million barrels per day, representing 2% of global supply. ⑶ Given the critical importance of the Indian route to Russia, JPMorgan analysts believe that if it is blocked, Russia may retaliate by shutting down the CPC pipeline. ⑷ The pipeline carries oil from Western oil companies to the market, and its closure would have a negative impact on the West. ⑸ Furthermore, if India halts purchases, Russia will need to store oil on tankers and offer deeper discounts to new buyers, potentially leading to a gradual decline in its oil production. ⑹ JPMorgan notes that excluding the world's second-largest oil exporter from the global market is unfeasible, as this could cause oil prices to soar. ⑺ A simultaneous disruption of the CPC pipeline and the Indian oil route would create a supply gap of 3.5 million barrels per day, representing 3.5% of global supply. (Refinitiv)
