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2025-08-01 20:35:57
[Non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations. Is a September Fed rate cut a foregone conclusion?] ⑴ The U.S. Department of Labor's July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs. ⑵ This figure was far below the consensus forecast of 110,000, exacerbating market concerns about an economic slowdown. ⑶ Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. ⑷ Before the release of the jobs data, market bets on a September Fed rate cut had fallen from 64.5% a week earlier to 43%. ⑸ This shift was largely driven by hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Powell and better-than-expected inflation data in June. ⑹ However, the latest jobs data may reignite market hopes for a rate cut. ⑺ In addition to the jobs data, S&P 500 futures also fell 0.8% on Friday, primarily due to the dual impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric and Amazon's weaker-than-expected earnings report. ⑻ Despite the weak jobs data, other data also suggested the economy remains resilient. 9. In the five weeks ending July 25, employee wages and payroll taxes climbed 6.4% year-on-year, showing solid growth.
