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2025-08-01 21:10:58
Institutional comments on July non-farm payrolls: Bloomberg Chief Economist Anna Wong: July’s non-farm payrolls were “surprisingly weak”, and even more shocking was the substantial downward revision – the number of new jobs in the past two months was directly slashed from “robust” to “almost zero”. Excluding the possible overestimation of the Labor Department’s “birth-death” model, potential job growth in July was essentially zero. Powell just called the unemployment rate a “key indicator” this week, but not only did the unemployment rate rise, the labor force also shrank for the third consecutive month. Conclusion: Labor demand is falling faster than supply, and the job market is not at all as “robust” as he said at the beginning of the year. He will probably have to change his tune. We originally bet on a December rate cut, but now it seems that the probability of an early start has greatly increased.
