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2025-08-01 21:50:29
[Non-farm payroll data saw a shocking reversal, sending the US dollar plummeting and expectations of a rate cut soaring] ⑴ The US non-farm payroll report for July was a disappointing surprise, reporting only 73,000 new jobs. ⑵ Furthermore, the June figure was significantly revised downward to 14,000, far below the previously reported 147,000. ⑶ The weak employment data triggered a sharp market reaction, with the US dollar index plummeting 1.09% to 98.94. ⑷ The euro rebounded strongly against the dollar, rising 1.22% to 1.1554, while the yen appreciated 1.58% to 148.35 against the dollar. ⑸ Although hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had previously dampened expectations of a rate cut, this significantly weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted traders to renew bets on a Fed policy shift. ⑹ Market expectations for a Fed rate cut before the end of the year surged to 54 basis points from 34 basis points on Thursday, with the first cut widely expected in September. ⑺ Trader Helen Given said the data was worse than anyone expected and clearly indicated a cooling labor market. ⑻ Trump's tariff rhetoric also exacerbated market volatility. ⑼ The Swiss franc fell due to the 39% tariff, while Canada's was under pressure due to the 35% tariff, but a weak US dollar ultimately helped these currencies rebound.
