Precious metals: Stagflation concerns resurface, precious metals fluctuate strongly
2025-08-06 10:30:10
Precious Metals: The US ISM Services PMI for July fell short of expectations, falling to near the boom-bust line of 50.1. Meanwhile, the employment index contracted, while the price index rose. Market concerns about a stagflationary environment intensified, and expectations of a Fed rate cut intensified, providing support for precious metals. However, gold prices remained stable overnight, while silver saw significant gains, perhaps reflecting market expectations of a subsequent rebound in real demand. Geopolitical tensions showed signs of easing, with Russia considering Ukraine's proposal for a ceasefire with Trump, but progress remains pending. Overall, market concerns about stagflation have resurfaced, and expectations of a Fed rate cut remain strong, providing support for precious metals. In terms of trading, buy on dips. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2510 is 760-800 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2510 is 9000-9400 yuan/kilogram.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.40%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.80%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.77%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.66%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.71%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 1,596.081 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 97.531 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing sectors were comprehensive (1.98%), banks (1.59%), and steel (1.45%). The worst-performing sectors were pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (0.12%), computers (0.25%), and building materials (0.30%). Regarding basis, the basis of the four major stock indices all strengthened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.20% and -3.40%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -11.20% and -11.70%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher last trading day and then fluctuated upward. Trading volume in both markets rebounded but did not significantly increase. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower and then fluctuated upward, driven by gains in weighty sectors such as finance and real estate. Technology sectors such as media and communications also performed well. All primary sectors within the Shenwan Index closed higher. The rapid decline in the index over the last two trading days of last week has been fully reversed. The Shanghai Composite Index is once again approaching its high from October last year, with the potential for an accelerated breakthrough in the short term. After the market closed yesterday, the People's Bank of China and seven other government departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New Industrialization," strengthening the coordination of industrial and financial policies to accelerate the industry's transition to mid- and high-end markets. In August, the interim reports of listed companies will be disclosed one after another, and the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises are also expected to pick up. The two-way recovery in profits and valuations may cause small and medium-sized stocks to perform better than the broader market. It is recommended to maintain long positions in IC and IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.4%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.8%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.77%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.66%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.71%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 0.49%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1,596.081 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 97.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Index's primary sectors, the best performers were general merchandise (1.98%), banking (1.59%), and steel (1.45%). The worst performers were building materials (0.3%), computers (0.25%), and pharmaceuticals (0.12%). The United States resumed imposing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st. While key domestic meetings offered relatively mild messages, the July PMI fell month-over-month to 49.3%. Amidst multiple macroeconomic events, short-term market risk appetite has declined. After two consecutive days of correction last week, the market has returned to an upward trend this week. In the medium term, with effective domestic policy implementation and easing liquidity, incremental capital inflows continue to drive the stock index's upward momentum. Strategically, medium-term covered call portfolios can be held. Regarding volatility, as the market becomes more volatile and volatility declines, volatility sell strategies can be gradually entered into the market with a phased approach.
Treasury bond futures: On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures closed higher in volatile trading. Based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract rose 0.06%, the 10-year bond futures contract rose 0.05%, the 5-year bond futures contract rose 0.04%, and the 2-year bond futures contract fell 0.01%. The yield on the most active 30-year Treasury bond fell 0.05 basis points to 1.918%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond fell 0.4 basis points to 1.704%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond remained unchanged from the previous day. Inter-product spreads for futures contracts: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL futures contracts changed by -0.079 yuan, 0.025 yuan, and 0.095 yuan, respectively.
Industrial silicon futures weakened again yesterday, with macroeconomic support continuing to weaken, and the market's logic shifting towards a weaker outlook. From a fundamental perspective, recent production starts in the southwest region have further increased, while the resumption of production in the north has been relatively slow. Given the previous price increases, silicon factories have shown a significant increase in their willingness to resume production, and overall supply will continue to increase. On the demand side, while major silicone factories continue to suspend production, polysilicon production has increased, offsetting the overall demand, maintaining stability. Overall, the relatively strong macroeconomic sentiment is breaking down, and the market is gradually returning to supply and demand logic. With the recent increase in silicon factory operations and the trend of increasing supply, the market still faces some pressure in the future. Regarding short-term trading, a light position is recommended, with the SI2509 contract in the reference range of 8,200-8,700 yuan/ton.
Copper: On Tuesday evening, the Shanghai copper price retreated to 78,070 yuan, while the London copper price fell to around $9,630. Macroeconomic conditions are neutral to bearish. The US ISM non-manufacturing index for July cooled to 50.1, well below expectations. New orders are nearing a standstill, employment is shrinking, and the price index hit a new high since October 2022, heightening the risk of stagflation. Fundamentals are neutral to bullish. Yesterday, copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,581 tons to 18,700 tons, while LME copper inventories increased by 14,000 tons to 153,800 tons. Mining at Chile's ET mine has been halted due to a collapse, but processing and smelting operations continue. Mitsubishi Materials Japan's Onahama smelter plans to partially suspend production due to raw material shortages. Overall, copper reserves remain tight. Overall, while tight supply and expectations of interest rate cuts have provided some support for copper prices, the increased downside risks of the overseas economy, coupled with the cooling of terminal exports due to tariffs, suggest that the current stabilization of copper prices may represent an adjustment after the previous sharp decline, rather than a reversal. Copper prices are expected to remain relatively volatile. Today's trading range for the main Shanghai copper price is 77,700-78,700 yuan/ton. Strategically, intraday range trading is recommended. Hold short positions ahead, and consider selling call options for inventory hedging purposes.
Coke: 1. The People's Bank of China, along with seven other government departments, issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New Industrialization," which explicitly calls for directing financial resources toward the high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of the manufacturing industry. The document emphasizes the establishment of a separate credit plan for the manufacturing industry, the promotion of comprehensive financial services for key enterprises in the industrial chain, and the development of technology finance and green finance. It aims to promote the upgrading of traditional industries and the growth of emerging ones, establish a core system for financial support for "new-quality productivity," and provide stronger support for new industrialization. Coke plant inventories decreased by 65,000 tons, steel mill inventories decreased by 132,900 tons, port inventories increased by 169,700 tons, and total coke inventories decreased by 28,200 tons.
Coking Coal: 1. The "Coal Mine Safety Regulations," as revised and approved at the 17th executive meeting of the Ministry of Emergency Management on July 7, 2025, are hereby promulgated and will take effect on February 1, 2026. Mine inventories decreased by 301,800 tons, coal washery inventories decreased by 92,300 tons, coking plant inventories increased by 73,500 tons, steel mill inventories increased by 42,800 tons, and port inventories decreased by 102,300 tons, for a total decrease of 380,100 tons.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated strongly overnight. Fundamentally, for scrap batteries, high summer temperatures limited supply to recyclers, keeping overall prices relatively firm. On the supply side, both primary and recycled lead production saw reductions and resumptions, and due to cost pressures, overall lead supply may see significant increases or decreases in August. On the demand side, the shift to peak season for end-user consumption has yet to be evident, and downstream battery companies are maintaining strong purchasing in the short term. Overall, consumer performance remains subdued, putting upward pressure on lead prices.
Rubber: On Tuesday, domestic full latex was priced at 14,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 14,320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 54.0 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 47.8 baht/kg, up 0.3 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 12.9 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of August 3, 2025, the combined bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao were 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons, or 1.35%, from the previous period. Bonded area inventories reached 75,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40%; general trade inventories reached 556,300 tons, a decrease of 1.47%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.66 percentage points, while the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points. Viewpoint: Currently, regions like Thailand (northeastern) in the Northern Hemisphere are still experiencing their seasonal rainy season. Harvesting in southern Indonesia in the Southern Hemisphere is about to cease, and Côte d'Ivoire is transitioning from its rainy season to its dry season. Weather in major producing regions around the world remains relatively stable, and global supply, from a gross perspective, is consistent with weather and rubber tree growth patterns. On the demand side, production activity in the domestic downstream tire industry has rebounded, but overall inventory levels have shown divergence. Over the past month or so, the improvement in sectors, particularly those driven by destocking, has been relatively limited. Consequently, changes in the balance sheet have been limited, and as expectations recede, RU and NR prices are experiencing a correction. Looking back, given the relatively normal weather conditions this year, the improvement in the balance sheet surplus will remain limited until tariff policies are significantly relaxed (or policies that can create strong recovery expectations on the demand side are introduced).
Rebar: With the gradual implementation of macroeconomic policies, market sentiment has cooled. Last week, rebar production decreased by 9,000 tons month-on-month, while social rebar inventories increased by 111,700 tons. Mill inventories decreased by 35,200 tons. Apparent demand fell by 131,700 tons to 2,034,100 tons, the lowest level in five months. The rebound driven by short-term macroeconomic expectations may be drawing to a close, and trading logic may return to realistic fundamentals. Steel profits are healthy, daily hot metal production remains strong, inventories remain low, and the supply-demand imbalance in the steel market is not significant. In the short term, construction steel prices may enter a period of range-bound fluctuations.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production increased by 53,000 tons last week, with accumulated inventories reaching 27,900 tons. Apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. Short-term supply and demand imbalances in the steel market are not significant. The rebound driven by macroeconomic expectations may be drawing to a close. Trading logic may then return to realistic fundamentals, and HRC prices may enter a period of range-bound fluctuations in the short term. Strategically, the 2510 rebar contract is targeted at the 3150-3300 range, while the 2510 HRC contract is targeted at the 3350-3500 range.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.40%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.80%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.77%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.66%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.71%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 1,596.081 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 97.531 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing sectors were comprehensive (1.98%), banks (1.59%), and steel (1.45%). The worst-performing sectors were pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (0.12%), computers (0.25%), and building materials (0.30%). Regarding basis, the basis of the four major stock indices all strengthened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.20% and -3.40%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -11.20% and -11.70%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher last trading day and then fluctuated upward. Trading volume in both markets rebounded but did not significantly increase. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower and then fluctuated upward, driven by gains in weighty sectors such as finance and real estate. Technology sectors such as media and communications also performed well. All primary sectors within the Shenwan Index closed higher. The rapid decline in the index over the last two trading days of last week has been fully reversed. The Shanghai Composite Index is once again approaching its high from October last year, with the potential for an accelerated breakthrough in the short term. After the market closed yesterday, the People's Bank of China and seven other government departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New Industrialization," strengthening the coordination of industrial and financial policies to accelerate the industry's transition to mid- and high-end markets. In August, the interim reports of listed companies will be disclosed one after another, and the profits of small and medium-sized enterprises are also expected to pick up. The two-way recovery in profits and valuations may cause small and medium-sized stocks to perform better than the broader market. It is recommended to maintain long positions in IC and IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.4%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.8%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.77%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.66%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.71%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 0.49%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1,596.081 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 97.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Index's primary sectors, the best performers were general merchandise (1.98%), banking (1.59%), and steel (1.45%). The worst performers were building materials (0.3%), computers (0.25%), and pharmaceuticals (0.12%). The United States resumed imposing so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st. While key domestic meetings offered relatively mild messages, the July PMI fell month-over-month to 49.3%. Amidst multiple macroeconomic events, short-term market risk appetite has declined. After two consecutive days of correction last week, the market has returned to an upward trend this week. In the medium term, with effective domestic policy implementation and easing liquidity, incremental capital inflows continue to drive the stock index's upward momentum. Strategically, medium-term covered call portfolios can be held. Regarding volatility, as the market becomes more volatile and volatility declines, volatility sell strategies can be gradually entered into the market with a phased approach.
Treasury bond futures: On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures closed higher in volatile trading. Based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract rose 0.06%, the 10-year bond futures contract rose 0.05%, the 5-year bond futures contract rose 0.04%, and the 2-year bond futures contract fell 0.01%. The yield on the most active 30-year Treasury bond fell 0.05 basis points to 1.918%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond fell 0.4 basis points to 1.704%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond remained unchanged from the previous day. Inter-product spreads for futures contracts: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL futures contracts changed by -0.079 yuan, 0.025 yuan, and 0.095 yuan, respectively.
Industrial silicon futures weakened again yesterday, with macroeconomic support continuing to weaken, and the market's logic shifting towards a weaker outlook. From a fundamental perspective, recent production starts in the southwest region have further increased, while the resumption of production in the north has been relatively slow. Given the previous price increases, silicon factories have shown a significant increase in their willingness to resume production, and overall supply will continue to increase. On the demand side, while major silicone factories continue to suspend production, polysilicon production has increased, offsetting the overall demand, maintaining stability. Overall, the relatively strong macroeconomic sentiment is breaking down, and the market is gradually returning to supply and demand logic. With the recent increase in silicon factory operations and the trend of increasing supply, the market still faces some pressure in the future. Regarding short-term trading, a light position is recommended, with the SI2509 contract in the reference range of 8,200-8,700 yuan/ton.
Copper: On Tuesday evening, the Shanghai copper price retreated to 78,070 yuan, while the London copper price fell to around $9,630. Macroeconomic conditions are neutral to bearish. The US ISM non-manufacturing index for July cooled to 50.1, well below expectations. New orders are nearing a standstill, employment is shrinking, and the price index hit a new high since October 2022, heightening the risk of stagflation. Fundamentals are neutral to bullish. Yesterday, copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,581 tons to 18,700 tons, while LME copper inventories increased by 14,000 tons to 153,800 tons. Mining at Chile's ET mine has been halted due to a collapse, but processing and smelting operations continue. Mitsubishi Materials Japan's Onahama smelter plans to partially suspend production due to raw material shortages. Overall, copper reserves remain tight. Overall, while tight supply and expectations of interest rate cuts have provided some support for copper prices, the increased downside risks of the overseas economy, coupled with the cooling of terminal exports due to tariffs, suggest that the current stabilization of copper prices may represent an adjustment after the previous sharp decline, rather than a reversal. Copper prices are expected to remain relatively volatile. Today's trading range for the main Shanghai copper price is 77,700-78,700 yuan/ton. Strategically, intraday range trading is recommended. Hold short positions ahead, and consider selling call options for inventory hedging purposes.
Coke: 1. The People's Bank of China, along with seven other government departments, issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New Industrialization," which explicitly calls for directing financial resources toward the high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of the manufacturing industry. The document emphasizes the establishment of a separate credit plan for the manufacturing industry, the promotion of comprehensive financial services for key enterprises in the industrial chain, and the development of technology finance and green finance. It aims to promote the upgrading of traditional industries and the growth of emerging ones, establish a core system for financial support for "new-quality productivity," and provide stronger support for new industrialization. Coke plant inventories decreased by 65,000 tons, steel mill inventories decreased by 132,900 tons, port inventories increased by 169,700 tons, and total coke inventories decreased by 28,200 tons.
Coking Coal: 1. The "Coal Mine Safety Regulations," as revised and approved at the 17th executive meeting of the Ministry of Emergency Management on July 7, 2025, are hereby promulgated and will take effect on February 1, 2026. Mine inventories decreased by 301,800 tons, coal washery inventories decreased by 92,300 tons, coking plant inventories increased by 73,500 tons, steel mill inventories increased by 42,800 tons, and port inventories decreased by 102,300 tons, for a total decrease of 380,100 tons.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated strongly overnight. Fundamentally, for scrap batteries, high summer temperatures limited supply to recyclers, keeping overall prices relatively firm. On the supply side, both primary and recycled lead production saw reductions and resumptions, and due to cost pressures, overall lead supply may see significant increases or decreases in August. On the demand side, the shift to peak season for end-user consumption has yet to be evident, and downstream battery companies are maintaining strong purchasing in the short term. Overall, consumer performance remains subdued, putting upward pressure on lead prices.
Rubber: On Tuesday, domestic full latex was priced at 14,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 14,320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 54.0 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 47.8 baht/kg, up 0.3 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 12.9 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of August 3, 2025, the combined bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao were 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons, or 1.35%, from the previous period. Bonded area inventories reached 75,500 tons, a decrease of 0.40%; general trade inventories reached 556,300 tons, a decrease of 1.47%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.66 percentage points, while the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points. Viewpoint: Currently, regions like Thailand (northeastern) in the Northern Hemisphere are still experiencing their seasonal rainy season. Harvesting in southern Indonesia in the Southern Hemisphere is about to cease, and Côte d'Ivoire is transitioning from its rainy season to its dry season. Weather in major producing regions around the world remains relatively stable, and global supply, from a gross perspective, is consistent with weather and rubber tree growth patterns. On the demand side, production activity in the domestic downstream tire industry has rebounded, but overall inventory levels have shown divergence. Over the past month or so, the improvement in sectors, particularly those driven by destocking, has been relatively limited. Consequently, changes in the balance sheet have been limited, and as expectations recede, RU and NR prices are experiencing a correction. Looking back, given the relatively normal weather conditions this year, the improvement in the balance sheet surplus will remain limited until tariff policies are significantly relaxed (or policies that can create strong recovery expectations on the demand side are introduced).
Rebar: With the gradual implementation of macroeconomic policies, market sentiment has cooled. Last week, rebar production decreased by 9,000 tons month-on-month, while social rebar inventories increased by 111,700 tons. Mill inventories decreased by 35,200 tons. Apparent demand fell by 131,700 tons to 2,034,100 tons, the lowest level in five months. The rebound driven by short-term macroeconomic expectations may be drawing to a close, and trading logic may return to realistic fundamentals. Steel profits are healthy, daily hot metal production remains strong, inventories remain low, and the supply-demand imbalance in the steel market is not significant. In the short term, construction steel prices may enter a period of range-bound fluctuations.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production increased by 53,000 tons last week, with accumulated inventories reaching 27,900 tons. Apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. Short-term supply and demand imbalances in the steel market are not significant. The rebound driven by macroeconomic expectations may be drawing to a close. Trading logic may then return to realistic fundamentals, and HRC prices may enter a period of range-bound fluctuations in the short term. Strategically, the 2510 rebar contract is targeted at the 3150-3300 range, while the 2510 HRC contract is targeted at the 3350-3500 range.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
