This week's RBA interest rate decision may trigger the market. Do Australian dollar bulls still have a chance?
2025-08-11 09:38:31
The Australian dollar was trading weak against the US dollar in early Asian trading on Monday (August 11), with the price trading around 0.6515, down 0.05%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision at noon on Tuesday (August 12) will be the focus of market attention.
Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday (August 10) showed that the producer price index (PPI) fell 3.6% year-on-year in July, lower than expected.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.6% at its August meeting on Tuesday, down from 3.85%. Markets expect RBA Governor Michele Bullock to maintain her cautious stance on the outlook for monetary policy.
On the dollar side, weak U.S. economic data has traders pricing in more interest rate cuts this year. Markets are currently pricing in a near 89% probability of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting and projecting 58 basis points of cuts by year-end. Traders will look for further cues from U.S. CPI inflation data for July, due on Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has re-entered the rising channel against the US dollar, supported by the 10-day, 20-day and 50-day EMAs. The RSI is in the bullish zone, and the MACD is ready to form a golden cross and return to above the zero axis, suggesting that the overall price continues to move upward.
(AUD/USD daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
At 9:37 Beijing time, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6421/22 against the US dollar.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision at noon on Tuesday (August 12) will be the focus of market attention.
Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday (August 10) showed that the producer price index (PPI) fell 3.6% year-on-year in July, lower than expected.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.6% at its August meeting on Tuesday, down from 3.85%. Markets expect RBA Governor Michele Bullock to maintain her cautious stance on the outlook for monetary policy.
On the dollar side, weak U.S. economic data has traders pricing in more interest rate cuts this year. Markets are currently pricing in a near 89% probability of a Fed rate cut at its September meeting and projecting 58 basis points of cuts by year-end. Traders will look for further cues from U.S. CPI inflation data for July, due on Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has re-entered the rising channel against the US dollar, supported by the 10-day, 20-day and 50-day EMAs. The RSI is in the bullish zone, and the MACD is ready to form a golden cross and return to above the zero axis, suggesting that the overall price continues to move upward.
(AUD/USD daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
At 9:37 Beijing time, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6421/22 against the US dollar.
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