The US CPI data reinforced the expectation of interest rate cuts. The market risk appetite rebounded, suppressing the demand for safe-haven assets. The gold price fluctuated narrowly, waiting for a breakthrough.
2025-08-13 14:05:21
Gold (XAU/USD) hovered around $3,350 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday, failing to extend the previous day's rebound. The US July CPI data showed a mild performance, with the annual rate remaining at 2.7%, while the core CPI annual rate rose to 3.1%, higher than the market expectation of 3.0%.
This reinforced expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the US dollar index and providing support for gold. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects a high probability of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
On the international front, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend tariffs with major Asian countries for three months, while the US-Russia summit is expected to help ease the situation in Ukraine.
These factors boosted market risk appetite, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record closing highs and Japan's Nikkei 225 index breaking through 43,000 points for the first time. The strengthening of risky assets weakened gold's safe-haven appeal, leaving gold prices lacking sustained upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, gold has been range-bound recently, and in the short term, it is still in a consolidation phase after falling from the high of $3,400. On the H4 chart, the $3,340 area (200-period moving average) is a key support level. If it falls below this level, the gold price may fall back to the $3,300 mark.
On the contrary, if it breaks through the $3,360 resistance area, it is expected to test $3,380 and $3,400. Further breakthroughs will open up space for an impact on the historical high of $3,420 or even $3,500.
According to market research, although expectations of interest rate cuts provide support for gold, the strong performance of global stock markets and weakening safe-haven demand mean that gold prices may lack breakthrough momentum in the short term, and investors should enter the market only after breaking through important technical levels.
Editor's opinion:
The gold market is currently experiencing a balance of forces, with expectations of a Fed rate cut providing downward support. However, record highs in global risk assets have significantly dampened safe-haven demand. In the short term, gold is likely to continue to fluctuate between $3,340 and $3,360, with a potential breakout likely dependent on this week's US PPI and consumer confidence data.
If risky assets continue to rise and geopolitical tensions ease, the upside for gold prices may be limited; on the contrary, once economic data or political events trigger a shift in risk sentiment, gold may usher in a new round of gains.
This reinforced expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the US dollar index and providing support for gold. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects a high probability of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
On the international front, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend tariffs with major Asian countries for three months, while the US-Russia summit is expected to help ease the situation in Ukraine.
These factors boosted market risk appetite, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record closing highs and Japan's Nikkei 225 index breaking through 43,000 points for the first time. The strengthening of risky assets weakened gold's safe-haven appeal, leaving gold prices lacking sustained upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, gold has been range-bound recently, and in the short term, it is still in a consolidation phase after falling from the high of $3,400. On the H4 chart, the $3,340 area (200-period moving average) is a key support level. If it falls below this level, the gold price may fall back to the $3,300 mark.
On the contrary, if it breaks through the $3,360 resistance area, it is expected to test $3,380 and $3,400. Further breakthroughs will open up space for an impact on the historical high of $3,420 or even $3,500.
According to market research, although expectations of interest rate cuts provide support for gold, the strong performance of global stock markets and weakening safe-haven demand mean that gold prices may lack breakthrough momentum in the short term, and investors should enter the market only after breaking through important technical levels.
Editor's opinion:
The gold market is currently experiencing a balance of forces, with expectations of a Fed rate cut providing downward support. However, record highs in global risk assets have significantly dampened safe-haven demand. In the short term, gold is likely to continue to fluctuate between $3,340 and $3,360, with a potential breakout likely dependent on this week's US PPI and consumer confidence data.
If risky assets continue to rise and geopolitical tensions ease, the upside for gold prices may be limited; on the contrary, once economic data or political events trigger a shift in risk sentiment, gold may usher in a new round of gains.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
