International crude oil prices continued to fall in early Asian trading on Monday, with a cumulative drop of more than 4% last week. The main reasons included the United States raising import tariffs on many countries, OPEC's announcement of an increase in production, and the market's expectation that the United States and Russia would reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Brent crude futures fell 0.78% to $66.07 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures fell 58 cents to $63.30.

Market expectations for an lifting of Russian crude oil supply restrictions have grown after U.S. President Trump announced on Friday that he would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 to discuss a possible end to the conflict in Ukraine.

This news is superimposed on the backdrop of the US increasing pressure on Russia. The market believes that if a peace agreement cannot be reached, the US may tighten its secondary sanctions on Russia and require India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil.

In addition, the US inflation data to be released on Tuesday is also seen as an important driver of oil prices this week.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said: "If the CPI data is weaker than expected, it will boost market expectations of an earlier and larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which will stimulate economic activity and boost crude oil demand; conversely, if the data is higher than expected, it will trigger stagflation concerns and delay the time of interest rate cuts."

Regarding tariffs, the United States has increased tariffs on imports from dozens of countries since last Thursday, which is expected to drag down economic activity, force supply chain realignment, and drive up inflation. Amidst the pessimistic overall economic outlook, Brent crude oil prices fell 4.4% last week, while WTI prices fell 5.1%.

From the daily level, WTI crude oil prices have fallen since the high point at the end of July, and have closed in the red for four consecutive trading days, and have fallen below the 20-day and 50-day moving average support levels. The short-term trend is bearish.

The MACD indicator formed a death cross and the momentum bar continued to expand, indicating that the short-term strength is increasing. The RSI indicator fell to around 42, approaching the oversold zone, suggesting the possibility of a short-term technical rebound. However, if the price cannot return above $64.50, it will be difficult for the bulls to rebound. The next support level is $62.50 and $61.80.

Editor's Note: Current oil price trends are influenced by a complex mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. In the short term, market sentiment is highly dependent on the progress of US-Russia negotiations and US economic data. If weak inflation data and a ceasefire agreement are both achieved, oil prices may see a temporary rebound, but tariff pressure may become a significant constraint to any upward movement.