Oil prices fell on a weekly basis as the US-Russia summit failed to reach an agreement and geopolitical uncertainty persisted.
2025-08-16 09:10:21
Oil prices settled down nearly $1 on Friday as traders awaited talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin that could lead to an easing of sanctions imposed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures settled down 1.5% at $65.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell 1.8% to $62.80. For the week, U.S. crude fell 1.7% and Brent fell 1.1%.
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump failed to reach an agreement during their meeting in Alaska, they held a joint press conference, stating that they had made significant progress, reaching agreement on many issues and leaving few remaining unresolved issues. However, they did not reach an agreement on one important issue. Trump said he would later call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO leaders, and other individuals he deemed appropriate to update them on the meeting. Trump expressed hope for good and productive meetings between the US and Russia in the future and expected to meet with Putin again soon. Putin suggested the next meeting might be in Moscow.
After meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Trump told Fox News that he gave the meeting a score of 10 (out of 10).
Russia's ambassador to Washington said that the Russian Federation is ready to resume relevant documents for air traffic with the United States, which are currently under discussion. Progress in Russia-US negotiations on visa issues is very slow.
Trump said before the meeting that he believed Russia was ready to end the war, but he also threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil if peace talks do not progress.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said: "If a ceasefire is announced, it will be bearish for crude oil in the short term." Kissler added.
Cesar Vidal, historian and international relations analyst, said: "This (Alaska talks) could be an excellent opportunity to establish the framework of a security architecture, just as the most important conferences at the end of World War II did, and most importantly, it could greatly contribute to the achievement of peace."
John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, said it was clear that "Trump didn't lose, but Putin clearly won, and Trump got nothing except more meetings." Putin, meanwhile, "has come a long way in rebuilding the relationship, which was what I always thought was his key goal," he said. "He's evaded sanctions. He's not facing a ceasefire. The next meeting hasn't been set. (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy wasn't told any of this before this press conference. It's far from over, but I would say Putin has essentially achieved most of his goals. Trump has achieved very little."
"Any changes to U.S. sanctions on Russia, the second-largest producer in OPEC+, could reshape trade flows that have been disrupted by the conflict in Ukraine," said Soojin Kim, an analyst at MUFG.
Bank of America analysts said on Thursday they were expanding their forecast for an oil market surplus, citing rising supply from the OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies.
Bank of America this week reiterated its bearish outlook for oil prices in the second half of 2025, with Brent crude averaging $63.50 a barrel and temporarily falling below $60 a barrel.
Bank of America said monetary/fiscal policy, a weaker dollar, OPEC+ discipline and declining U.S. production could trigger a rebound in oil prices to above $70 a barrel by mid-2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that benchmark crude prices will fall sharply in the fourth quarter as OPEC and its allies accelerate the gradual withdrawal of production cuts, leading to an increase in global inventories.
The EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday that it expects Brent crude oil prices to average $58 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and fall to around $50 a barrel in early 2026. The agency's previous forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the fourth quarter was $64 a barrel.
"The price forecast is primarily driven by the decision by OPEC+ members to accelerate production increases, leading to larger oil inventory builds," the EIA said. The agency predicts that global inventories will increase by more than 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, 800,000 barrels per day more than previously expected.
For WTI, the EIA lowered its fourth-quarter price forecast from $60 a barrel to $54. For the full year 2026, the agency expects Brent crude to average $51 a barrel and WTI to average $48 a barrel.
The EIA said that falling prices in early 2026 are expected to prompt OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers to reduce supply, slowing inventory growth later that year. Lower prices may also lead to a small increase in demand. Although the Alaska meeting was relatively optimistic, uncertainty remains as no agreement was reached. Oil prices will focus on further comments from the United States and Russia next Monday. If optimism continues, US oil prices may test the lower Bollinger Band of $61.70 per barrel on the daily chart.
Brent crude futures settled down 1.5% at $65.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell 1.8% to $62.80. For the week, U.S. crude fell 1.7% and Brent fell 1.1%.
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump failed to reach an agreement during their meeting in Alaska, they held a joint press conference, stating that they had made significant progress, reaching agreement on many issues and leaving few remaining unresolved issues. However, they did not reach an agreement on one important issue. Trump said he would later call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO leaders, and other individuals he deemed appropriate to update them on the meeting. Trump expressed hope for good and productive meetings between the US and Russia in the future and expected to meet with Putin again soon. Putin suggested the next meeting might be in Moscow.
After meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Trump told Fox News that he gave the meeting a score of 10 (out of 10).
Russia's ambassador to Washington said that the Russian Federation is ready to resume relevant documents for air traffic with the United States, which are currently under discussion. Progress in Russia-US negotiations on visa issues is very slow.
Trump said before the meeting that he believed Russia was ready to end the war, but he also threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil if peace talks do not progress.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said: "If a ceasefire is announced, it will be bearish for crude oil in the short term." Kissler added.
Cesar Vidal, historian and international relations analyst, said: "This (Alaska talks) could be an excellent opportunity to establish the framework of a security architecture, just as the most important conferences at the end of World War II did, and most importantly, it could greatly contribute to the achievement of peace."
John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, said it was clear that "Trump didn't lose, but Putin clearly won, and Trump got nothing except more meetings." Putin, meanwhile, "has come a long way in rebuilding the relationship, which was what I always thought was his key goal," he said. "He's evaded sanctions. He's not facing a ceasefire. The next meeting hasn't been set. (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy wasn't told any of this before this press conference. It's far from over, but I would say Putin has essentially achieved most of his goals. Trump has achieved very little."
"Any changes to U.S. sanctions on Russia, the second-largest producer in OPEC+, could reshape trade flows that have been disrupted by the conflict in Ukraine," said Soojin Kim, an analyst at MUFG.
Bank of America analysts said on Thursday they were expanding their forecast for an oil market surplus, citing rising supply from the OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies.
Bank of America this week reiterated its bearish outlook for oil prices in the second half of 2025, with Brent crude averaging $63.50 a barrel and temporarily falling below $60 a barrel.
Bank of America said monetary/fiscal policy, a weaker dollar, OPEC+ discipline and declining U.S. production could trigger a rebound in oil prices to above $70 a barrel by mid-2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that benchmark crude prices will fall sharply in the fourth quarter as OPEC and its allies accelerate the gradual withdrawal of production cuts, leading to an increase in global inventories.
The EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday that it expects Brent crude oil prices to average $58 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and fall to around $50 a barrel in early 2026. The agency's previous forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the fourth quarter was $64 a barrel.
"The price forecast is primarily driven by the decision by OPEC+ members to accelerate production increases, leading to larger oil inventory builds," the EIA said. The agency predicts that global inventories will increase by more than 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, 800,000 barrels per day more than previously expected.
For WTI, the EIA lowered its fourth-quarter price forecast from $60 a barrel to $54. For the full year 2026, the agency expects Brent crude to average $51 a barrel and WTI to average $48 a barrel.
The EIA said that falling prices in early 2026 are expected to prompt OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers to reduce supply, slowing inventory growth later that year. Lower prices may also lead to a small increase in demand. Although the Alaska meeting was relatively optimistic, uncertainty remains as no agreement was reached. Oil prices will focus on further comments from the United States and Russia next Monday. If optimism continues, US oil prices may test the lower Bollinger Band of $61.70 per barrel on the daily chart.
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