Trading volume is light, and the bullish outlook for oil prices depends on whether it can break through the 50-day moving average.
2025-09-01 19:51:25
During the European trading session on Monday (September 1), the US market was closed for Labor Day, and trading was light, with WTI crude oil futures prices rising. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is testing its 50-day moving average (US$64.97).
A break above the 50-day moving average could unleash upward momentum, targeting last week's swing high of $65.10, followed by a test of minor support and resistance at $65.51. The next major target is $66.76, representing the 50% retracement of the $55.12 to $78.40 trading range. A sustained break above this level could push prices towards strong resistance between $67.55 and $69.51.
On the downside, 60.61 is a key support level. With major institutions away for the holiday, traders are cautious about price action. Low trading volume increases the likelihood of false breakouts and intraday traps.
OPEC+ supply increases and U.S. production expansion limit oil price upside
From the supply side, the market remains under pressure. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.58 million barrels per day in June, an increase of 133,000 barrels per day from the previous month. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and analysts believe the organization may not stop increasing production.
In August, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by over 6%, snapping a four-month winning streak as supply growth outpaced demand. A Reuters poll showed limited upside for oil prices, with WTI projected to average $64.65 and Brent $67.65 in 2025. Currently, rising production and weak demand expectations continue to weigh on market sentiment.
Geopolitical risks are rising, but the support is limited
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain a factor, adding a small geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. Russian crude oil exports fell to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day (bpd) due to intensified cross-border attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed retaliation after a new wave of attacks on power facilities.
While no major supply disruptions have occurred yet, risks remain elevated. Markets are also watching the Russia-India-China regional summit in Beijing ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on September 7.
Crude oil price forecast: A break above $66.18 with volume is key to an upward move
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)
From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil appears bullish in the short term, but the lack of large fund participation suggests a lack of market confidence. A break above $66.76 on increased volume could pave the way for a test of higher resistance. Until then, rising production from the US and OPEC+ will continue to cap upward price action. Unless a breakout above key levels is confirmed after the holiday, the crude oil price forecast remains neutral to bearish.
At 19:48 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was quoted at US$64.65 per barrel, up 1%.
A break above the 50-day moving average could unleash upward momentum, targeting last week's swing high of $65.10, followed by a test of minor support and resistance at $65.51. The next major target is $66.76, representing the 50% retracement of the $55.12 to $78.40 trading range. A sustained break above this level could push prices towards strong resistance between $67.55 and $69.51.
On the downside, 60.61 is a key support level. With major institutions away for the holiday, traders are cautious about price action. Low trading volume increases the likelihood of false breakouts and intraday traps.
OPEC+ supply increases and U.S. production expansion limit oil price upside
From the supply side, the market remains under pressure. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.58 million barrels per day in June, an increase of 133,000 barrels per day from the previous month. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and analysts believe the organization may not stop increasing production.
In August, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by over 6%, snapping a four-month winning streak as supply growth outpaced demand. A Reuters poll showed limited upside for oil prices, with WTI projected to average $64.65 and Brent $67.65 in 2025. Currently, rising production and weak demand expectations continue to weigh on market sentiment.
Geopolitical risks are rising, but the support is limited
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain a factor, adding a small geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. Russian crude oil exports fell to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day (bpd) due to intensified cross-border attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed retaliation after a new wave of attacks on power facilities.
While no major supply disruptions have occurred yet, risks remain elevated. Markets are also watching the Russia-India-China regional summit in Beijing ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on September 7.
Crude oil price forecast: A break above $66.18 with volume is key to an upward move
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: Yihuitong)
From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil appears bullish in the short term, but the lack of large fund participation suggests a lack of market confidence. A break above $66.76 on increased volume could pave the way for a test of higher resistance. Until then, rising production from the US and OPEC+ will continue to cap upward price action. Unless a breakout above key levels is confirmed after the holiday, the crude oil price forecast remains neutral to bearish.
At 19:48 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was quoted at US$64.65 per barrel, up 1%.
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