Technical Analysis: Silver prices retreat from 14-year highs, are bulls taking profits?
2025-09-04 18:39:40
Spot silver prices fell slightly on Thursday (September 4th). The spot silver chart shows that yesterday's price climbed above $41.40 per ounce. The last time silver reached this level was in September 2011. The rise in spot silver prices was aided by the surge in gold prices to a record high.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs analysts released their mid-2026 gold price forecast, according to which spot gold could rise to the following levels:
In the baseline scenario, it rises to $4,000;
If 1% of the funds from the U.S. private Treasury bond market flowed into the gold market, the price of gold would rise to $5,000. This scenario would mean the Federal Reserve's independence could be lost, inflation would rise, and the dollar's status as a so-called "reserve currency" could be weakened.
Technical Analysis
(Source of spot silver 4-hour chart: Yihuitong)
By analyzing the fluctuations of spot silver, two rising channels can be identified:
The medium-term channel (marked in red) has been formed and continues to operate since early summer this year;
Short-term channel (marked in purple): reflects the growth trend of silver demand in the past two weeks.
Against this backdrop, it is clear that silver has reached the resistance zone formed by the upper rails of these two channels. For short- to medium-term traders, this signal indicates that spot silver may be "overvalued", which may trigger a round of long profit-taking.
Signs of weakening demand include:
The relative strength index (RSI) showed a bearish divergence;
Silver prices fell sharply from the upper track of the channel (marked by the red arrow).
The bulls may find support at the middle and lower rails of the purple channel.
Based on the above analysis, we can speculate that the purple channel may still be able to support the upward momentum of silver by inertia; at the same time, the price of silver may form a bearish reversal pattern (such as a double top pattern) near the upper track of the red channel, and then may pull back to the psychologically significant $40 mark - this position has previously experienced an imbalance in buyer power (that is, concentrated buyer demand).
At 18:35 Beijing time, spot silver was quoted at $40.916 per ounce, down 0.64%.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs analysts released their mid-2026 gold price forecast, according to which spot gold could rise to the following levels:
In the baseline scenario, it rises to $4,000;
If 1% of the funds from the U.S. private Treasury bond market flowed into the gold market, the price of gold would rise to $5,000. This scenario would mean the Federal Reserve's independence could be lost, inflation would rise, and the dollar's status as a so-called "reserve currency" could be weakened.
Technical Analysis
(Source of spot silver 4-hour chart: Yihuitong)
By analyzing the fluctuations of spot silver, two rising channels can be identified:
The medium-term channel (marked in red) has been formed and continues to operate since early summer this year;
Short-term channel (marked in purple): reflects the growth trend of silver demand in the past two weeks.
Against this backdrop, it is clear that silver has reached the resistance zone formed by the upper rails of these two channels. For short- to medium-term traders, this signal indicates that spot silver may be "overvalued", which may trigger a round of long profit-taking.
Signs of weakening demand include:
The relative strength index (RSI) showed a bearish divergence;
Silver prices fell sharply from the upper track of the channel (marked by the red arrow).
The bulls may find support at the middle and lower rails of the purple channel.
Based on the above analysis, we can speculate that the purple channel may still be able to support the upward momentum of silver by inertia; at the same time, the price of silver may form a bearish reversal pattern (such as a double top pattern) near the upper track of the red channel, and then may pull back to the psychologically significant $40 mark - this position has previously experienced an imbalance in buyer power (that is, concentrated buyer demand).
At 18:35 Beijing time, spot silver was quoted at $40.916 per ounce, down 0.64%.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
