USD/JPY fails to rise above 149.00 ahead of key employment data
2025-09-04 19:21:09
The USD/JPY pair rose to around 148.40 during the European trading session on Thursday (September 4). After a pullback on Wednesday, the US dollar resumed its upward trend today, driving the currency pair slightly upward.
The dollar came under selling pressure on Wednesday after weak July data from the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) fueled dovish bets on the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. The data showed U.S. employers reported 7.18 million job openings, below market expectations of 7.4 million and lower than the previous reading of 7.36 million.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its September policy meeting has risen to 97.6% from 92% before the release of the JOLTS data.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had previously warned of downside risks to the labor market following President Trump's tariff policy. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated the need for a rate cut while warning of a gradual slowdown in labor demand.
During Thursday's trading session, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP employment change data for August and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI data.
In Japan, investors are awaiting Friday's release of household spending data for July, a key indicator of consumer demand, which is expected to show an annualized growth of 2.3%, up from 1.3% in the previous session.
Technical Analysis
(Source of USD/JPY daily chart: Yihuitong)
The short-term bias is bullish as technical indicators remain in bullish territory, with the MACD line poised to cross above its red signal line for the first time since June.
However, for bulls to successfully break through the resistance level of 149.10 and push the pair towards the next resistance level in the 151.00-151.75 range, the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA) support at 147.85 must hold firm. Notably, the 151.00-151.75 range coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April decline. A successful breakout of this range could open up further gains to 154.60.
On the downside, if the exchange rate falls below the support level of 146.65, the bears may regain the upper hand: initially, after breaking below, the exchange rate may stabilize at the tentative rising trend line around 145.30, and then further decline to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 144.35.
Overall, Wednesday’s pullback in USD/JPY does not eliminate the short-term bullish potential – bulls are still defending the 147.85 support area; bears may gain momentum only if the exchange rate falls below 146.65.
The dollar came under selling pressure on Wednesday after weak July data from the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) fueled dovish bets on the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. The data showed U.S. employers reported 7.18 million job openings, below market expectations of 7.4 million and lower than the previous reading of 7.36 million.
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its September policy meeting has risen to 97.6% from 92% before the release of the JOLTS data.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had previously warned of downside risks to the labor market following President Trump's tariff policy. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated the need for a rate cut while warning of a gradual slowdown in labor demand.
During Thursday's trading session, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP employment change data for August and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI data.
In Japan, investors are awaiting Friday's release of household spending data for July, a key indicator of consumer demand, which is expected to show an annualized growth of 2.3%, up from 1.3% in the previous session.
Technical Analysis
(Source of USD/JPY daily chart: Yihuitong)
The short-term bias is bullish as technical indicators remain in bullish territory, with the MACD line poised to cross above its red signal line for the first time since June.
However, for bulls to successfully break through the resistance level of 149.10 and push the pair towards the next resistance level in the 151.00-151.75 range, the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA) support at 147.85 must hold firm. Notably, the 151.00-151.75 range coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April decline. A successful breakout of this range could open up further gains to 154.60.
On the downside, if the exchange rate falls below the support level of 146.65, the bears may regain the upper hand: initially, after breaking below, the exchange rate may stabilize at the tentative rising trend line around 145.30, and then further decline to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 144.35.
Overall, Wednesday’s pullback in USD/JPY does not eliminate the short-term bullish potential – bulls are still defending the 147.85 support area; bears may gain momentum only if the exchange rate falls below 146.65.
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