Crude Oil Trading Alert: Trump's tariff threats and escalating EU sanctions trigger a rebound in oil prices, but inventory pressures may limit gains
2025-09-11 10:02:02
Following Trump's tough talk against Russia and Europe, Brent crude oil remained above $67 per barrel, while WTI remained near $64. Oil prices had previously seen a rapid rise due to short-term short-covering, but overall, they remain low for the year.
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations of an increase of 1.7 million barrels.
Although overall inventory levels remain below the five-year seasonal average, the unexpected increase highlights signs of weak demand and reinforces concerns about oversupply at the end of the year. This data will put pressure on oil prices in the short term.
Trump, in a meeting with European Union officials, said the United States might consider imposing new tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil, including Asian nations and India, if EU countries cooperated.
This move was interpreted by the market as a new means of pressure, but the United States has only taken action against India so far, and the uncertainty of policy implementation has increased market volatility.
The EU emphasized in a statement that it would "significantly" escalate sanctions against Russia and related parties, and called Russia's violation of Polish airspace a "serious escalation." This statement has made the market highly vigilant about future geopolitical risks in the energy market.
“The West’s stance on Russia is hardening and we may see some unpredictable moves. The market needs to be prepared for more volatility.” - Mukesh Sahdev, head of commodity markets at Rystad Energy
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of US crude oil shows that the price has formed a temporary support near the $60 mark and faces important resistance in the $64 area. If it breaks through this level, it is expected to further rise to the $66 to $67 range;
On the contrary, if it falls back below $62, it may retest the support level of $60. The overall trend is still in the range of consolidation and lacks a unilateral trend.
Editor's opinion:
From geopolitics to inventory data, the market is facing a complex mix of short-term bullish and bearish factors. Trump's tariff threats and escalating EU sanctions are potential catalysts for oil prices, but EIA inventory growth and medium-term pressure from oversupply mean that oil prices are likely to remain volatile rather than trend upward.
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels last week, far exceeding market expectations of an increase of 1.7 million barrels.
Although overall inventory levels remain below the five-year seasonal average, the unexpected increase highlights signs of weak demand and reinforces concerns about oversupply at the end of the year. This data will put pressure on oil prices in the short term.
Trump, in a meeting with European Union officials, said the United States might consider imposing new tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil, including Asian nations and India, if EU countries cooperated.
This move was interpreted by the market as a new means of pressure, but the United States has only taken action against India so far, and the uncertainty of policy implementation has increased market volatility.
The EU emphasized in a statement that it would "significantly" escalate sanctions against Russia and related parties, and called Russia's violation of Polish airspace a "serious escalation." This statement has made the market highly vigilant about future geopolitical risks in the energy market.
“The West’s stance on Russia is hardening and we may see some unpredictable moves. The market needs to be prepared for more volatility.” - Mukesh Sahdev, head of commodity markets at Rystad Energy
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of US crude oil shows that the price has formed a temporary support near the $60 mark and faces important resistance in the $64 area. If it breaks through this level, it is expected to further rise to the $66 to $67 range;
On the contrary, if it falls back below $62, it may retest the support level of $60. The overall trend is still in the range of consolidation and lacks a unilateral trend.
Editor's opinion:
From geopolitics to inventory data, the market is facing a complex mix of short-term bullish and bearish factors. Trump's tariff threats and escalating EU sanctions are potential catalysts for oil prices, but EIA inventory growth and medium-term pressure from oversupply mean that oil prices are likely to remain volatile rather than trend upward.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
