CITIC Construction Investment Futures: US inflation cools down, copper prices fluctuate and strengthen
2025-09-11 10:50:03
Copper: Shanghai copper futures rose over 0.5% overnight to 80,190 yuan, while London copper closed above $10,000. Macroeconomic outlook is neutral. The year-on-year growth rate of the US PPI in August cooled unexpectedly to 2.6%, down 0.1% month-on-month. The decline in inflation reinforces confidence in interest rate cuts, and a weaker dollar boosted copper prices. However, market concerns remain about Trump's potential tariff increases on China and India to facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Fundamentals are neutral. Yesterday, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 19,000 tons, while LME copper inventories decreased by 225 tons to 155,000 tons. On Monday, all mining operations at the Grasberg underground mine in Indonesia were suspended due to an accident. Future resumption of production is under scrutiny. Overall, the market has almost fully priced in a September rate cut. Combined with domestic policy expectations and tightening copper market supply and demand, copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term. Today's trading range for Shanghai copper futures is 79,400-80,700 yuan/ton. Strategically, buy low and sell high within this range.
Stock index futures: The Shenzhen 300 rose 0.21%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.37%, the CSI 500 rose 0.05%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.06%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.978123 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 140.401 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, the best performing sectors were communications (3.49%), electronics (1.78%), and media (1.68%). The worst performing sectors were power equipment (-1.18%), comprehensive (-1.09%), and basic chemicals (-0.94%). Regarding basis, with the exception of the slightly stronger IH basis, the IF, IC, and IM basis all weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are -0.40% and -3.80%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -13.40% and -15.10%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets primarily fluctuated upward, with slight gains and declines in both the morning and afternoon trading sessions. Trading volume in both markets decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, falling below 2 trillion yuan again. From a primary industry perspective, technology sectors such as communications, electronics, and media rebounded after a sharp correction yesterday. However, hot concept sectors with high trading concentration in the past may still face strong downward pressure in the short to medium term. Regarding indices, the IC and IM basis rates have weakened recently due to the continuous downward pressure from the technology sector, reaching a deep discount. This suggests that the broad range of industry sectors covered may provide some value for long positions in the near term. Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the August inflation data. CPI fell slightly year-on-year and remained unchanged month-on-month, and the decline in PPI narrowed. The overall macroeconomic data was stable. Combined with the expectation of a narrowing interest rate gap between China and the United States, IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment. It is recommended to maintain long positions.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.38%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.27%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.09%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.37%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.05%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.06%, and the Shenzhen 100 ETF rose 0.3%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1.978123 trillion yuan, down approximately 140.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best-performing were communications (3.49%), electronics (1.78%), and media (1.68%). The worst-performing sectors were basic chemicals (-0.94%), general merchandise (-1.09%), and power equipment (-1.18%). After surging, the implied volatility of options has entered a downward range. The cost-effectiveness of put option strategies has increased, and a double-sell strategy of holding options in batches can be considered. If fundamentals such as the macro economy and listed companies' earnings improve, there will be ample upside potential. In the long term, the market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward. You can pay attention to a covered call strategy of long stock index futures and selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures fell on Wednesday. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year contract fell 0.86%, the 10-year contract fell 0.27%, the 5-year contract fell 0.15%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.04%. The yield on the active 30-year bond rose 2.3 basis points to 2.093%, the yield on the active 10-year bond rose 2 basis points to 1.815%, and the yield on the active 2-year bond rose 1 basis point to 1.4225%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.135 yuan, -0.015 yuan, and 0.115 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Bond fund redemption pressure doubled, futures bonds continued to weaken, long-term bonds still faced greater pressure than short-term bonds, and sentiment dominated. Both the core CPI and PPI improved in August, but they are unlikely to become core influencing factors. The market is expected to stabilize in the future, but the correction is far from over. Be wary of a flattening of the interest rate curve due to the risk of unexpected liquidity tightening. Regarding operations, a cautious wait-and-see approach is recommended, with opportunities to short TS. Cross-product strategies: The interest rate curve is short-steep and long-flat. Subsequently, a short-TS (short-long) and long-T (long-term) arbitrage strategy is gradually introduced. Currently, the market is cost-effective, pending clear signals of tightening liquidity. Hedging strategies: The net basis center has risen with the widening of the term spread, and the trend of futures premiums shifting to discounts is strong. Arbitrage participation will become more difficult in the future. It is recommended to directly reduce current bond positions to mitigate potential liquidity risks.
Rubber: On Wednesday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 56.0 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 52.55 baht/kg, down 0.4 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 13.4 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.258 million tons, down 7,000 tons (0.57%) from the previous day. China's total dark rubber social inventory was 793,000 tons, down 0.5% from the previous day. Spot inventory in Qingdao decreased by 1.7%, while that in Yunnan increased by 3.7%. Tire 10# in Vietnam decreased by 3%, while NR inventories increased by 3%. China's total light-colored rubber inventory reached 465,000 tons, a 0.7% decrease month-over-month. Old full-latex latex increased by 1.5% month-over-month, 3L latex increased by 0.3%, and RU inventories decreased by 3%. Viewpoint: The recent peak of the rainy season continues in major Southeast Asian producing regions, including Thailand, and rainfall continues to impose certain restrictions on tapping (Note: Heavy rain does not mean fewer areas or days for tapping, but it does limit the expansion of tapping operations). Côte d'Ivoire remains rainless, so short-term production expansion remains limited, in line with seasonal trends. On the demand side, domestic tire companies are entering a period of concentrated maintenance. With production capacity declining, finished product inventories are being reduced, leading to a strengthening demand side (i.e., past expectations are being met). With renewed market expectations, RU and NR prices are strengthening again, driven by the rainy season. Looking back, since the growth in demand is expected to come mainly from the Chinese market (accounting for 20-25% of the world), the improvement in the overall balance is still limited, so it is expected that there will be limited upward space in the future.
Methanol spot prices are 2120 in Daqi, 2270 in Luoyang, and 2390 in Lunan. Factory auctions are booming, pushing up transfer prices and traders are bullish. In the short term, spot coal prices are expected to rise slightly, with overall prices expected to remain stable. Methanol operating rates remain high, with some major plants in mainland China scheduled for inspections this month. Watch for unexpected shutdowns of some medium-sized plants in recent production areas. Prices in Henan have risen significantly due to storage capacity pressures. Both Baofeng in Inner Mongolia and Baofeng in Ningxia have made purchases this week. An olefins plant at a port is expected to recover this week, and attention remains focused on the conflict between demand and inventory pressures. On Wednesday, the spot basis in East China was between 01-120, and 01-100 in 9-100, with basis fluctuations showing slight fluctuations. MTO plant profits have significantly recovered, and expectations are growing that olefins plants at ports will resume operations. In the medium term, the traditional downstream market is about to enter the "golden September and silver October" peak demand season, and inventory accumulation expectations may gradually materialize. The 01 contract remains slightly bullish. In terms of operation, methanol is not driven strongly in the short term and is mainly volatile. The reference volatile range of methanol 2601 is 2360-2460 yuan/ton.
Urea: Spot prices in Shandong are 1,640-1,650 yuan/ton ex-factory, and in Henan, 1,680-1,700 yuan/ton ex-factory. The domestic urea market remains weak and stable. Following the release of the urea export guidance price, prices have weakened as sentiment has materialized. New exports will be concentrated in September and October, but only a few companies have export rights and volumes are limited. Autumn fertilizer preparations have not yet begun on a large scale, and overall demand has weakened significantly compared to the first half of the year. Industrial demand is primarily short-term, essential needs, providing limited short-term support. The futures market has also weakened, leading to a pessimistic outlook for the market. The interaction between the futures and spot markets has significantly strengthened. Overall, upstream supply pressures persist, demand remains weak, and weak fluctuations are the main drivers. Urea prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, with the reference range for urea 2601 at 1,630-1,730 yuan/ton.
Rebar: Last week, rebar production fell slightly by 18,800 tons to 2.1868 million tons. Social inventories increased by 148,900 tons, while on-site inventories edged up by 17,200 tons. Apparent demand fell by 21,400 tons week-on-week to 2.0207 million tons. Currently, rebar fundamentals remain unchanged, primarily due to rapid inventory accumulation, which is 843,700 tons higher than the previous year, leading to accumulating industry conflicts. With the gradual resumption of production at steel mills, there is room for steel production to rebound. However, short-term demand remains weak, and inventory pressures remain. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels.
Hot-rolled Coil (HRC): Last week, HRC production continued to decline by 105,000 tons to 3.1424 million tons, while inventories increased by 88,800 tons and apparent demand decreased by 153,600 tons. Despite a decline in both supply and demand, inventories continue to rise. The current HRC inventory accumulation situation is not optimistic. Overall production is high, while demand is insufficient, leading to a gradual contraction in steel mill profits. If demand does not improve significantly, prices remain at risk of continued decline. Strategically, the reference range for rebar 2601 contracts is 3050-3200, and the reference range for HRC 2601 contracts is 3250-3400.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock index futures: The Shenzhen 300 rose 0.21%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.37%, the CSI 500 rose 0.05%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.06%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.978123 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 140.401 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, the best performing sectors were communications (3.49%), electronics (1.78%), and media (1.68%). The worst performing sectors were power equipment (-1.18%), comprehensive (-1.09%), and basic chemicals (-0.94%). Regarding basis, with the exception of the slightly stronger IH basis, the IF, IC, and IM basis all weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are -0.40% and -3.80%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -13.40% and -15.10%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets primarily fluctuated upward, with slight gains and declines in both the morning and afternoon trading sessions. Trading volume in both markets decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, falling below 2 trillion yuan again. From a primary industry perspective, technology sectors such as communications, electronics, and media rebounded after a sharp correction yesterday. However, hot concept sectors with high trading concentration in the past may still face strong downward pressure in the short to medium term. Regarding indices, the IC and IM basis rates have weakened recently due to the continuous downward pressure from the technology sector, reaching a deep discount. This suggests that the broad range of industry sectors covered may provide some value for long positions in the near term. Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the August inflation data. CPI fell slightly year-on-year and remained unchanged month-on-month, and the decline in PPI narrowed. The overall macroeconomic data was stable. Combined with the expectation of a narrowing interest rate gap between China and the United States, IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment. It is recommended to maintain long positions.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.38%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.27%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.09%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.21%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.37%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.05%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.06%, and the Shenzhen 100 ETF rose 0.3%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1.978123 trillion yuan, down approximately 140.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best-performing were communications (3.49%), electronics (1.78%), and media (1.68%). The worst-performing sectors were basic chemicals (-0.94%), general merchandise (-1.09%), and power equipment (-1.18%). After surging, the implied volatility of options has entered a downward range. The cost-effectiveness of put option strategies has increased, and a double-sell strategy of holding options in batches can be considered. If fundamentals such as the macro economy and listed companies' earnings improve, there will be ample upside potential. In the long term, the market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward. You can pay attention to a covered call strategy of long stock index futures and selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures fell on Wednesday. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year contract fell 0.86%, the 10-year contract fell 0.27%, the 5-year contract fell 0.15%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.04%. The yield on the active 30-year bond rose 2.3 basis points to 2.093%, the yield on the active 10-year bond rose 2 basis points to 1.815%, and the yield on the active 2-year bond rose 1 basis point to 1.4225%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.135 yuan, -0.015 yuan, and 0.115 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Bond fund redemption pressure doubled, futures bonds continued to weaken, long-term bonds still faced greater pressure than short-term bonds, and sentiment dominated. Both the core CPI and PPI improved in August, but they are unlikely to become core influencing factors. The market is expected to stabilize in the future, but the correction is far from over. Be wary of a flattening of the interest rate curve due to the risk of unexpected liquidity tightening. Regarding operations, a cautious wait-and-see approach is recommended, with opportunities to short TS. Cross-product strategies: The interest rate curve is short-steep and long-flat. Subsequently, a short-TS (short-long) and long-T (long-term) arbitrage strategy is gradually introduced. Currently, the market is cost-effective, pending clear signals of tightening liquidity. Hedging strategies: The net basis center has risen with the widening of the term spread, and the trend of futures premiums shifting to discounts is strong. Arbitrage participation will become more difficult in the future. It is recommended to directly reduce current bond positions to mitigate potential liquidity risks.
Rubber: On Wednesday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 56.0 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 52.55 baht/kg, down 0.4 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 13.4 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.258 million tons, down 7,000 tons (0.57%) from the previous day. China's total dark rubber social inventory was 793,000 tons, down 0.5% from the previous day. Spot inventory in Qingdao decreased by 1.7%, while that in Yunnan increased by 3.7%. Tire 10# in Vietnam decreased by 3%, while NR inventories increased by 3%. China's total light-colored rubber inventory reached 465,000 tons, a 0.7% decrease month-over-month. Old full-latex latex increased by 1.5% month-over-month, 3L latex increased by 0.3%, and RU inventories decreased by 3%. Viewpoint: The recent peak of the rainy season continues in major Southeast Asian producing regions, including Thailand, and rainfall continues to impose certain restrictions on tapping (Note: Heavy rain does not mean fewer areas or days for tapping, but it does limit the expansion of tapping operations). Côte d'Ivoire remains rainless, so short-term production expansion remains limited, in line with seasonal trends. On the demand side, domestic tire companies are entering a period of concentrated maintenance. With production capacity declining, finished product inventories are being reduced, leading to a strengthening demand side (i.e., past expectations are being met). With renewed market expectations, RU and NR prices are strengthening again, driven by the rainy season. Looking back, since the growth in demand is expected to come mainly from the Chinese market (accounting for 20-25% of the world), the improvement in the overall balance is still limited, so it is expected that there will be limited upward space in the future.
Methanol spot prices are 2120 in Daqi, 2270 in Luoyang, and 2390 in Lunan. Factory auctions are booming, pushing up transfer prices and traders are bullish. In the short term, spot coal prices are expected to rise slightly, with overall prices expected to remain stable. Methanol operating rates remain high, with some major plants in mainland China scheduled for inspections this month. Watch for unexpected shutdowns of some medium-sized plants in recent production areas. Prices in Henan have risen significantly due to storage capacity pressures. Both Baofeng in Inner Mongolia and Baofeng in Ningxia have made purchases this week. An olefins plant at a port is expected to recover this week, and attention remains focused on the conflict between demand and inventory pressures. On Wednesday, the spot basis in East China was between 01-120, and 01-100 in 9-100, with basis fluctuations showing slight fluctuations. MTO plant profits have significantly recovered, and expectations are growing that olefins plants at ports will resume operations. In the medium term, the traditional downstream market is about to enter the "golden September and silver October" peak demand season, and inventory accumulation expectations may gradually materialize. The 01 contract remains slightly bullish. In terms of operation, methanol is not driven strongly in the short term and is mainly volatile. The reference volatile range of methanol 2601 is 2360-2460 yuan/ton.
Urea: Spot prices in Shandong are 1,640-1,650 yuan/ton ex-factory, and in Henan, 1,680-1,700 yuan/ton ex-factory. The domestic urea market remains weak and stable. Following the release of the urea export guidance price, prices have weakened as sentiment has materialized. New exports will be concentrated in September and October, but only a few companies have export rights and volumes are limited. Autumn fertilizer preparations have not yet begun on a large scale, and overall demand has weakened significantly compared to the first half of the year. Industrial demand is primarily short-term, essential needs, providing limited short-term support. The futures market has also weakened, leading to a pessimistic outlook for the market. The interaction between the futures and spot markets has significantly strengthened. Overall, upstream supply pressures persist, demand remains weak, and weak fluctuations are the main drivers. Urea prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, with the reference range for urea 2601 at 1,630-1,730 yuan/ton.
Rebar: Last week, rebar production fell slightly by 18,800 tons to 2.1868 million tons. Social inventories increased by 148,900 tons, while on-site inventories edged up by 17,200 tons. Apparent demand fell by 21,400 tons week-on-week to 2.0207 million tons. Currently, rebar fundamentals remain unchanged, primarily due to rapid inventory accumulation, which is 843,700 tons higher than the previous year, leading to accumulating industry conflicts. With the gradual resumption of production at steel mills, there is room for steel production to rebound. However, short-term demand remains weak, and inventory pressures remain. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels.
Hot-rolled Coil (HRC): Last week, HRC production continued to decline by 105,000 tons to 3.1424 million tons, while inventories increased by 88,800 tons and apparent demand decreased by 153,600 tons. Despite a decline in both supply and demand, inventories continue to rise. The current HRC inventory accumulation situation is not optimistic. Overall production is high, while demand is insufficient, leading to a gradual contraction in steel mill profits. If demand does not improve significantly, prices remain at risk of continued decline. Strategically, the reference range for rebar 2601 contracts is 3050-3200, and the reference range for HRC 2601 contracts is 3250-3400.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
