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2025-09-12 15:35:15
Economists Say the Federal Reserve's Probability of a September Rate Cut Rises, Signaling Labor Market Weakness. (1) ICIS economist Kevin Swift stated on September 12 that the latest US CPI report will make the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision "more challenging." (2) Swift noted that given the weakening labor market, the Fed could still decide to cut rates at its September meeting. (3) Although wages grew 3.9% year-over-year in August, the growth rate has shown signs of slowing, which will weaken real income growth and support for consumer spending. (4) Initial jobless claims recently rose to their highest level since October 2021. (5) Swift believes: "This could be the beginning of increased layoffs and a weakening labor market, and data over the next week or two will provide more clarity."
