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2025-09-12 16:30:10
Norges Bank's interest rate decision faces a complex situation. ⑴ The Norges Bank's original plan for a September 18th rate cut faces uncertainty. This follows a 25 basis point cut to 4.25% in June and a strong hint of further easing in September. ⑵ Current Norwegian economic data clearly misaligns with the signal for a rate cut: inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, wage growth in 2025 is expected to exceed the central bank's 4.5% forecast, and economic expansion is accelerating. ⑶ Analysts believe that current monetary policy is not overly tight, but rather consistent with the current economic landscape. Concerns about overtightening may be unfounded. ⑷ Despite the strengthening of the Norwegian krone (3.65% against the euro since early August and 5.5% since April), exchange rate fluctuations alone are insufficient to justify a rate cut. ⑸ The key contradiction lies in persistently high inflation, and the deflationary effects of the krone's appreciation have yet to fully materialize. The central bank must maintain a hawkish stance to achieve its inflationary control objectives.
