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2025-09-12 17:15:32
[The US Dollar is Under Pressure and Fluctuates, Expectations of Rate Cuts Surge] ⑴ The latest data released by the US shows a surge in unemployment benefit applications, reaching a four-year high. Combined with the fastest consumer inflation in seven months, it indicates signs of labor market weakness, further supporting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Institutional analysts note that while inflation has risen slightly, it remains generally under control, and market focus has shifted to the Fed's rate cut prospects. ⑵ The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September 17th meeting, but bets on a larger cut have cooled, suggesting that the pace of easing before the end of the year may be more gradual than previously expected. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly approached the 4% mark, indicating growing risk aversion. ⑶ The euro, after rising the previous day, fluctuated slightly as markets reduced expectations for further European Central Bank rate cuts, following the ECB President's statement that risks to the economic outlook have become more balanced. Meanwhile, the ratings outlook for France's fiscal situation has become a focus. 4. The US dollar index rebounded slightly after two consecutive days of decline, driven by market concerns about US labor market data and Trump's tariff rhetoric. However, it is still on track to record its second consecutive weekly decline. The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar after both governments reiterated that exchange rates should be determined by the market. Weak UK economic data dragged down the British pound, while the Australian dollar hovered near its recent high.
