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2025-09-12 17:39:58
The gold market may see a "sell-the-facts" trend next week. The gold market may see a "sell-the-facts" trend (i.e., selling based on past events) next week. Gold is highly sensitive to geopolitical factors, with prices hitting record highs for the fourth consecutive week. Trade frictions between India and China, major crude oil customers for the United States and Russia, pose a risk of increasing. This increases the likelihood that central banks will increase their gold purchases to diversify their reserve assets and reduce reliance on the US dollar. Geopolitical factors are making this precious metal less sensitive to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Even a resurgent US dollar would not hinder gold's price rise. The White House's announcement to exclude gold from potential tariffs also had no meaningful impact on gold prices. If Trump successfully sows rifts between Russia, India, and China, oil prices will rise and inflation will accelerate. A stagflationary environment and increased gold purchases by central banks are positive for gold prices. However, in the short term, gold prices have shown technical overbought conditions after their sharp rise. This was reflected in the stabilization of prices between Tuesday and Friday, while silver and other precious metals prices continued to rise and stock indices reached new highs. On the daily timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is retreating after reaching above 80. This has occurred 11 times in the past six years, with price corrections accompanying 10 of those occasions; a similar pattern is likely to occur again this time. Anticipation of a key interest rate cut on Wednesday could trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" investing pattern.
