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2025-09-12 17:40:42
[BoJ expected to remain on hold, cautious sentiment dominates] ⑴ Given the volatility of the current economic outlook, the Bank of Japan is likely to adopt a wait-and-see attitude at next week's meeting. Although recent data show that GDP growth has exceeded expectations, inflation is sticky, and the yen has depreciated again, these factors seem to provide reasons for raising interest rates, but domestic and international political and economic uncertainties have made policymakers tend to be cautious. ⑵ The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has brought variables to the policy outlook. At the same time, the continued doubts in overseas markets about the US-Japan trade agreement have also increased uncertainty. Combined with the weakening trend in Japan's exports and industrial output, and the faltering pace of consumer spending, these factors collectively point to a sign of economic slowdown that cannot be ignored. ⑶ Stefan Angrick, an economist at Moody's Analytics, pointed out that there is currently a lack of sufficient demand-driven inflation to support the decision to raise interest rates this month. Although the Bank of Japan is not unable to raise interest rates, in the current context of uncertain economic prospects, policymakers may choose to wait until the economic situation becomes clearer.
