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2025-09-12 17:53:46
[USD Under Substantial Downward Pressure: Three Factors Foreshadow a New Round of Weakness] ⑴ Despite a brief recent rebound, the US dollar remains under overall pressure. Data showing a surge in US unemployment claims and a slight pickup in inflation continue to focus investors' attention on expectations that the Federal Reserve may resume its accommodative monetary policy next week and beyond. Technically, the US Dollar Index (USD) remains below the daily cloud, which ranges from 98.427 to 98.825, on the daily chart. The 14-day momentum indicator remains negative, a clear bearish technical signal. ⑵ Macroeconomic fundamentals also point to a weakening US dollar. With increasing uncertainty in US economic data, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have intensified, directly weakening the dollar's appeal. While the dollar has stabilized in the short term, its long-term downward trend appears to be emerging, and investors are closely monitoring changes in relevant economic indicators to determine its sustainability. ⑶ From a market perspective, a reduction in speculative short positions leaves room for further declines in the US dollar index in the coming days and weeks. Institutional analysts believe that only when the US dollar index can effectively break through and maintain above the daily cloud can the overall bullish sentiment return. Currently, the combination of multiple factors such as fundamentals, technical indicators, and market positioning indicates that downside risks for the US dollar are accumulating.
