Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-09-12 18:00:17
The Pound's "Quiet Period" Is Over: Will the Data Flood Herald a Policy Shift? ⑴ The pound has recently rebounded against the US dollar and euro, largely due to its stable performance during a data drought and the fading of short bets. However, with the upcoming release of key data such as UK employment, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision, and retail sales, the market's quiet period is expected to end. ⑵ Given the significant deterioration in the labor market, the market is reassessing the Bank of England's policy outlook. Although market expectations for a rate cut have tightened significantly by March 2026, the possibility of one rate cut remains within the year. From a risk-reward perspective, the possibility of an earlier rate cut appears more attractive than a later one. ⑶ The release of this key data will be a key factor in determining the direction of the pound, especially as the market may be more sensitive to dovish surprises, as interest rate markets have greater room to re-price a dovish stance. Therefore, risks to the pound are likely to be skewed to the downside.
