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2025-09-12 18:01:37
[Regarding frequent interest rate cut signals and the job market as a focus, can the AI boom sustain the bull market?] ⑴ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce an interest rate cut at this week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut. This expectation is largely based on several recent weak US employment reports. Although Thursday's inflation data was slightly higher than expected, analysts believe this is unlikely to deter the Fed from cutting rates, as supporting the job market remains the top priority. ⑵ Historical data shows that of the Fed's 55 rate cuts since 1990, 60% have been 25 basis points, while cuts of up to 50 basis points typically occurred during or immediately after recessions. Analysts point out that a 50 basis point cut would indicate significant Fed concern about the near-term outlook for the US economy. Currently, the market expects the Fed to have cut interest rates by approximately 73 basis points by December, equivalent to three standard rate cuts. ⑶ Recent revisions to employment data show that the U.S. economy may have created 911,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated in the 12 months ending in March. This astonishing revision has attracted widespread attention in the market. Investors expect to hear a clear statement from the Federal Reserve that it is committed to ensuring that the sluggish labor market situation does not worsen further. ⑷ Although the expectation of interest rate cuts is an important factor in driving U.S. stocks to record highs, the huge potential of artificial intelligence (AI), strong corporate earnings and the easing of market concerns about the economy caused by Trump's tariff remarks have also played a key role. The S&P 500 has risen 12% so far this year. ⑸ Oracle's stock price soared 36% on a huge cloud business transaction, and its market value is approaching one trillion U.S. dollars. This phenomenon highlights the huge demand for computing power in the AI race and also shows the astonishing speed of economic and technological development. The performance of technology and AI stocks will continue to be the focus of Wall Street.
