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2025-09-12 20:34:39
[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Futures Trends Diverge] ⑴ Steel: Maintaining a volatile pattern. Inventory pressure awaits demand easing. Expectations of pre-holiday restocking and a relatively warm macro environment provide support, but capital markets remain cautious. Positions in the top 20 positions of the 01 contract are primarily reduced (with a more significant reduction in short positions). ⑵ Iron Ore: Focus on 1-5 positive arbitrage opportunities. Global shipping disruptions coupled with high molten iron levels have led to slight fluctuations in port inventories. Expectations of pre-holiday restocking support short-term prices, but medium-term pressure remains from increased shipments of major mines and expectations of a decline in molten iron prices. ⑶ Coking Coal: Fluctuating at a high level. The second round of spot price increases and reductions has begun, and market sentiment may improve after three rounds of price increases and reductions. Supported by pre-holiday restocking expectations, spot price reductions are limited, and capital markets are reducing both long and short positions in the 01 contract (with a greater reduction in short positions). ⑷ Coke: A short-selling strategy is in place. Falling costs are improving coking profits, with downstream procurement primarily based on demand. Spot price increases and reductions are still being implemented, so be wary of a surge in bullish sentiment after the second round of price increases and reductions. ⑸ Manganese silicon: Fluctuating at a low level. The weak stability of manganese ore and the decline in coke prices have led to a downward shift in cost support. Manufacturers have resumed production and increased inventory. Against the backdrop of weakening supply and demand, the market is insufficiently driven by its own strength and mainly follows the fluctuations of raw materials.
