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2025-09-12 20:35:32
[Caixin Futures: Gold Prices Face Short-Term Fluctuations, Poised for Divergence among Non-ferrous Metals] (1) Gold: Maintain a bullish view. In the short term, rising volatility and profit-taking are suppressing high-level fluctuations. However, weakening US employment, moderate inflation, expanding fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risks continue to provide support. Deepening cracks in the global monetary and credit system, coupled with growing expectations of interest rate cuts, have shifted the support range for gold prices down to 823-830 yuan. Silver is more resilient. (2) Alumina: Short-sell on rallies. Fundamentals maintain excess capacity, with weekly operating capacity rebounding, inventories and warehouse receipts continuing to increase. The opening of the import window exacerbates supply pressures, and the overall weak trend persists. (3) Shanghai Aluminum: Buy on dips. Positive macroeconomic sentiment continues both domestically and internationally. Anticipation of the peak September and October seasons supports initial signs of inventory reduction. Increased pickups from LME warehouses in Asia are raising supply concerns, making aluminum prices more likely to rise than fall. (4) Cast aluminum alloys: Buy on dips. Tight scrap supply and the end of tax rebates for recycled aluminum companies in many regions are providing support. Driven by both macro and fundamental factors, a relatively strong trend is expected. (5) Lithium carbonate: Cautiously wait and see. News was calm and the market fluctuated within a narrow range. Expectations of resumption of production in Xiawo were partially factored into market prices, and the peak season of demand provided downward support. However, the results of the "self-inspection" of Yichun mining companies are still unclear, and uncertainty on the supply side remains.
