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2025-09-12 20:36:20
[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector: Mixed Bullish and Bearish Trends Diverge] ⑴ Crude Oil: Fluctuating at a Low Level, Watch for Geopolitical Risks. OPEC+'s October production increase of 137,000 barrels per day is small and has already been priced in by the market. Countries that have over-cut production will need to compensate by July 2026. Trump's proposed second phase of sanctions against Russia is driving market volatility, with limited downside potential. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Fluctuating at a Low Level. US sanctions on Russian terminal and storage operators have escalated, and Ukraine attacked Russian oil depots, leading to an unstable Middle East situation. The price differential structure is strong, so an overly bearish outlook is not recommended. ⑶ Glass: Buy on dips. The spot price remains flat at 1,164 yuan/ton. Midstream cargoes lack sustainability, but expectations of restocking demand remain in September and October. Consider buying on dips in the 1,160-1,175 range. ⑷ Soda Ash: Buy on dips. The market is stable and prices are firm. Operating rates are 86.98%, with supply increasing slightly. Strong downstream glass production coupled with stabilizing costs suggests a temporary overly bearish outlook. 5. Caustic soda: Buy on dips. Shandong's liquid caustic soda is stable, but non-aluminum prices are struggling. Anticipated inventory restocking before the National Day holiday at the end of the month and high alumina production support a positive outlook. 6. Methanol: Buy on dips. Taicang spot prices are trading at 2,280 yuan, down 5 yuan month-over-month. High port inventories are balancing expectations for peak season. Against the backdrop of the golden September season, we need to wait for macroeconomic stimulus or supply disruption signals to trigger a rally.
