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2025-09-12 21:36:19
[British Pound Bull-Bear Game: The Choice at the 1.35 Level and the Central Bank's Decision] (1) GBP/USD may find new buying support near $1.3500. This round number, with a massive $1.2 billion in GBP options expiring, could form a key psychological and technical support area. Thursday's low was $1.3495. Although it subsequently rebounded to $1.3583 on the back of US data, market attention has gradually shifted to this key option expiration level. (2) Intraday data showed that the pound hit an intraday low of $1.3525, following a weak report on the UK economy at the end of the first half of the year, further exacerbating market concerns about the pound. Poor economic data could undermine investor confidence and provide momentum for shorting the pound. (3) The market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain its key policy rate unchanged on Tuesday (September 18), and may also announce a slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT). Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, the central bank's monetary policy direction will be a key factor influencing the pound's short-term performance. Against this backdrop, traders should closely monitor market reactions to option expiration dates. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement four consecutive interest rate cuts of $25 basis points, starting on September 17th. If this prediction materializes, the divergence in monetary policy among major central banks worldwide will have a significant impact on the British pound's exchange rate.
