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2025-09-12 21:51:06
[Expectations of a Rate Cut Boost Precious Metals Bulls, Ushering in a Reconstruction in the Gold-Silver Ratio] ⑴ Gold prices climbed 0.4% on Friday to $3,649.54 per ounce, just shy of Tuesday's all-time peak of $3,673.95. This marked the fourth consecutive week of gains, with a weekly gain of 1.8% and a year-to-date surge of 39%. ⑵ Significantly weaker US labor market data completely reversed market expectations. Federal funds futures suggest a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September 17 meeting is fully priced in. The low interest rate environment continues to reduce the cost of holding precious metals. ⑶ Silver prices surged 1.3% to $42.08, a 14-year high. Platinum rose 1.4% to $1,397.61, and palladium surged 2.2% to $1,214.70. All three major rare metals recorded weekly gains, driven by inflation hedging demand and industrial properties. ⑷ UBS analysts have explicitly raised their gold price target for next year to $3,900 by mid-year, emphasizing the dual driving forces of continued ETF inflows and expectations of interest rate cuts. Furthermore, the central bank's policy move to simplify gold import and export rules has further opened up liquidity in the Asian market. ⑸ A key shift in market trading logic has occurred: investors are prioritizing pricing in a weak job market over sticky inflation. This expectation gap has enabled precious metals to break through the traditional interest rate framework and demonstrate stronger asset allocation value in an uncertain environment.
