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2025-09-12 23:34:33
【USD/CAD is facing a key test from the "double resolution" of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada】 (1) USD/CAD is facing a key test from the "double resolution" of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. Although the exchange rate has fallen slightly from its high point this year, the correction is still limited, and it still maintains a high range of fluctuations above 1.38. (2) The market generally expects that both central banks will announce interest rate cuts at the interest rate meeting on September 17: the Bank of Canada is priced to cut at least 25bp, and there are calls for a "substantial rate cut" from the Federal Reserve, which makes the currency pair face the dual uncertainty of policy divergence and synchronized easing. (3) On the one hand, Canada's employment is weak and core inflation is falling. There is an 88% probability that the central bank will initiate an "insurance" interest rate cut, and the cumulative easing space this year may exceed 50bp; on the other hand, the downward revision of US non-farm payrolls and the unexpected slowdown of PPI have also strengthened the expectation of a "dovish surprise" from the Federal Reserve. (4) If the Bank of Canada takes more aggressive action, USD/CAD is expected to test the 1.3925 or even 1.40 mark. Conversely, if the Fed leads the way in cutting interest rates or oil prices continue to rebound, the exchange rate may fall back to the 1.3760-1.3750 area to seek support. (5) Short-term traders should focus on the guidance of the Canadian CPI on September 16 and the US CPI on September 12. Any deviation in the data may trigger a breakthrough towards 1.40 or 1.37.
