Crude oil trading reminder: Geopolitical tensions drive supply-side concerns, and oil prices rebound slightly
2025-09-15 09:14:57
The attack involved Russia's largest export terminal in Primorsk and the Kirishi refinery.
The Primorsk terminal has a daily loading capacity of about 1 million barrels and is the largest export port in western Russia.
The Kirishi refinery, operated by Surgutneftegaz, processes about 17.7 million tonnes per year (355,000 bpd), accounting for about 6.4% of Russia's total refining capacity.

"The attack demonstrates a willingness to disrupt international oil markets, which could further push up prices," said Natasha Kaneva, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Russia said it would maintain production in some regions, and Bashkortostan Governor Radiy Khabirov said local oil companies would continue production despite Saturday's attack.
At the same time, the US policy toward Russia and Europe's stance have also attracted market attention.
"Europe is still buying Russian oil, and their sanctions are not strong enough," Trump said on Sunday. "If the United States imposes tougher sanctions, Europe must act accordingly."
At the macro level, investors are also keeping an eye on the US-China talks in Madrid. The US has asked its allies to impose tariffs on imports from the Asian country in response to its purchases of Russian oil, a move that has heightened trade concerns in the market.
Furthermore, US economic data is also influencing market expectations. Last week's slowing job growth and rising inflation have fueled concerns about an economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at its September 16-17 meeting to support the economy.
The daily chart of US crude oil shows that the price has found support near $62. The short-term moving average maintains an upward slope, and the RSI indicator is in the neutral zone, indicating that the market is temporarily lacking a sense of direction. If the price can break through the upper resistance of $63.50, it is expected to further rise to $65.
On the other hand, if it falls below the $61.80 support, it may retest the $60 mark. Overall, oil prices remain volatile at high levels, and investors need to pay attention to further developments in supply and demand and geopolitical situations.

Editor's Note: Current oil price trends are driven by two factors: on the one hand, the attack on Russian energy infrastructure has increased the supply risk premium; on the other hand, weaker US economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts have limited the potential for oil prices to rise. In the short term, if the conflict continues, oil prices may remain high and volatile; however, if demand concerns deepen, gains may be limited.
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