CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Copper prices remain high and volatile, with attention paid to economic and trade talks.
2025-09-15 11:13:21
Copper: Shanghai copper closed at $80,810 on Friday night, while London copper touched a high of $10,126 before settling at $10,063. Macroeconomic outlook is neutral. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September hit a new low since May at 55.4, while five-year inflation expectations continued to rise to 3.9%. Weak economic data reinforced expectations of a rate cut, and copper prices continued to rise. This week's macroeconomic focus will be on the progress of the Sino-US trade talks. Fundamentals are neutral. Global copper inventories rebounded to 606,400 tons last week. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories increased by 12,000 tons to 94,000 tons, bonded port copper inventories saw a slight reduction of 3,300 tons to 76,800 tons, LME copper inventories saw 1,800 tons to 154,000 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased by 4,600 tons to 281,600 tons. Overall, expectations for easing overseas monetary policy are growing. However, due to insufficient quality during the current peak season, expectations of a rebound in demand remain unproven. Copper prices are expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. Today's Shanghai copper price range is 79,600-81,200 yuan/ton. Strategically, short-term trading is recommended, with a buy-low-sell-high approach.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.43%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.09%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.90%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.57%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.49%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.31%. Trading volume across the two markets totaled 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 83.207 trillion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, the best performing sectors were nonferrous metals (1.96%), real estate (1.51%), and steel (1.41%). The worst performing sectors were communications (-2.13%), general merchandise (-1.95%), and banks (-1.52%). Regarding basis, the basis of all four major stock indices weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.10% and -2.10%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -8.60% and -12.90%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated slightly in the previous trading day, with a slight decline. Trading volume in both markets increased slightly compared to the previous day. Looking at the primary sectors, the communications sector, which had previously performed strongly, declined yesterday due to US restrictions, while sectors like real estate and steel strengthened due to the recent easing of real estate policies in various cities. In terms of index performance, small and medium-sized stocks slightly outperformed the broader market. The central bank released August financial data on Friday, showing a further narrowing of the M2-M1 spread. Continued easing of monetary liquidity may favor small and medium-sized stock indices. From September 14th to 17th, China and the United States will hold another round of talks on trade and other economic issues. While the results are currently expected to be positive, they remain under scrutiny. IC and IM are expected to continue their upward trend driven by positive sentiment, and it is recommended to maintain long positions.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.43%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.09%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.9%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.57%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.49%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.35%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.31%, and the SZSE 100 ETF fell 1.13%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 83.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best-performing were nonferrous metals (1.96%), real estate (1.51%), and steel (1.41%). The worst-performing sectors were beauty care (-1.52%), general merchandise (-1.95%), and communications (-2.13%). The overall implied volatility of options has entered a downward range, and the cost-effectiveness of put option strategies has increased. You can consider building positions in batches and holding a double-sell strategy for options; if the fundamentals such as the macro economy and the profits of listed companies improve, there will be sufficient upside space. The market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward in the long term. You can pay attention to the covered call strategy of stock index futures long positions combined with selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: On Friday, Treasury bond futures saw divergent trading. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract rose 0.38%, the 10-year contract rose 0.06%, the 5-year contract rose 0.01%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.03%. The yield on the most active 30-year bond fell 1.8 basis points to 2.079%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond fell 0.8 basis points to 1.7895%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond rose 1 basis point to 1.42%. Inter-product spreads for futures contracts: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by -0.169 yuan, -0.045 yuan, and -0.245 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Sentiment continues to recover, with long-term bonds strong and short-term bonds weak, likely supported by the central bank's increased outright reverse repos and a weakening equity market. August's economic and financial data were generally lackluster and may provide little guidance on fundamentals. The bond market is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the correction is far from over. Be wary of a flattening of the interest rate curve, as there is a risk of unexpected liquidity tightening. Regarding operations, a cautious wait-and-see approach is recommended, with opportunities to short TS. A cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is short-steep and long-flat. Subsequently, a short-TS (short-long) and long-T (long-term) arbitrage strategy is gradually introduced. Currently, it offers value for money, pending clear signals of tightening liquidity. Hedging strategy: While the net basis has declined, the current level remains high, making short arbitrage difficult. It is recommended to reduce current bond positions to mitigate potential liquidity risks.
Iron Ore: 1. Last week, supply of the five major steel varieties reached 8.5724 million tons, a weekly decrease of 34,100 tons, or 0.4%. Total inventories stood at 15.1461 million tons, a weekly increase of 139,100 tons, or 0.93%. Weekly consumption was 8.4333 million tons, up 1.9%. 2. Hangzhou's construction steel inventories surged, reaching a post-winter stockpiling high. This week, Hangzhou's construction steel inventories stood at approximately 1.2092 million tons, up 136,300 tons from the previous week and a 12.7% week-on-week increase. Compared to last year, current market inventories are significantly higher than the same period last year, increasing by approximately 91.81%. 3. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.510 million tons of steel in August, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month and a 3.3% month-on-month decrease. Cumulative steel exports from January to August totaled 77.490 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From September 1 to September 7, 2025, Mysteel reported global iron ore shipments totaling 27.562 million tons, a decrease of 8.006 million tons from the previous month. Total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 23.296 million tons, a decrease of 5.725 million tons from the previous month. From September 1 to September 7, 2025, total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports totaled 25.729 million tons, a decrease of 721,000 tons from the previous month. Total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports totaled 24.480 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons from the previous month. Total iron ore arrivals at the six northern ports totaled 13.200 million tons, an increase of 192,000 tons from the previous month. On September 12th, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills and found that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points from the previous week and 6.20 percentage points year-on-year. Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization was 90.18%, up 4.39 percentage points from the previous week and 6.29 percentage points year-on-year. Steel mill profitability was 60.17%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and up 54.11 percentage points year-on-year. Average daily molten iron output was 2.4055 million tons, up 117,100 tons from the previous week. Inventory: On September 12th, Mysteel statistics showed that total imported iron ore inventories at 47 ports nationwide were 144.5612 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 304,000 tons. Average daily port throughput was 3.4439 million tons, an increase of 140,600 tons. Mysteel statistics show that total imported iron ore inventories at steel mills nationwide stand at 89.93 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 531,800 tons. The current daily consumption of imported ore at sampled steel mills is 2.9665 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 159,800 tons. The inventory-to-consumption ratio is 30.32 days, a decrease of 1.53 days. From a core industry perspective, hot metal production has rebounded rapidly, but demand has shown signs of weakening marginally. Steel mill profitability has recently been declining, and inventories of the five major downstream materials continue to accumulate. However, whether this impact will trickle down to upstream producers remains to be seen. Overall, the rebound in hot metal prices continues to support ore prices, and with steel mills restocking ahead of the National Day holiday, short-term volatility in iron ore prices is advisable. However, the sustainability of the divergence in the steel ore price trend may be questionable, and there is a certain risk of further declines in iron ore prices. Focus on changes in steel mill profitability and peak season demand.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated strongly on Friday evening. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, current smelter raw material inventories remain adequate, while recyclers are cautious about falling prices and seeking higher prices, leading to weak performance of scrap batteries. Some recycled lead refineries are scheduled to continue suspending production for maintenance, making it difficult for them to shift to a low-load operation in the short term. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are expected to stabilize due to the replenishment of imported ore. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, while those in East China remain stable, resulting in a tight overall supply situation. On the demand side, purchasing demand in the battery industry is unlikely to see a significant improvement, and overall restocking is limited. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, but fundamental improvements are limited, keeping lead prices primarily volatile at low levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Shanghai zinc prices fluctuated strongly on Friday evening. Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve held its September interest rate meeting on Thursday. Previous economic data has already confirmed the possibility of a rate cut, and macroeconomic conditions remain supportive until the cut is implemented. From a fundamental perspective, domestic concentrate TC prices remain under pressure, currently averaging between 3,500 and 4,100 yuan per ton of metal. Imported TC prices have generally stabilized. On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu research, additional refinery maintenance in Henan and Guangxi provinces is underway this month, with further planned maintenance in Inner Mongolia in the middle and later part of the month. However, overall demand remains primarily incremental. On the demand side, downstream zinc demand improved during the "Golden September" period, but current terminal orders are insufficient, and peak season quality is somewhat subpar. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment remains supportive, while fundamentals are suppressing upward movement, leading to widespread price fluctuations.
Rebar: Rebar production fell by 67,500 tons to 2.1193 million tons last week, while social inventories increased by 185,700 tons. Factory inventories decreased slightly by 47,100 tons, resulting in a 40,000-ton decrease in apparent demand compared to the previous week. Currently, rebar fundamentals remain unchanged, primarily due to rapid inventory accumulation, which is 1.6023 million tons higher than the previous year, leading to accumulating industry conflicts. Hot metal prices remain high, and while demand for construction steel is expected to improve, high inventories are holding back futures prices, limiting any potential price recovery.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC): Last week, HRC production increased by 109,000 tons, while inventories decreased slightly by 10,200 tons. Apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons to 3.2616 million tons. The current fundamentals for HRC are relatively positive. While overall production is high, demand remains resilient. We should monitor the progress of inventory reduction. If demand remains weak, prices may continue to fall. Strategically, the reference range for rebar 2601 contracts is 3050-3200, and the reference range for HRC 2601 contracts is 3250-3400.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to forward this to "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.43%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.09%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.90%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.57%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.49%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.31%. Trading volume across the two markets totaled 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 83.207 trillion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, the best performing sectors were nonferrous metals (1.96%), real estate (1.51%), and steel (1.41%). The worst performing sectors were communications (-2.13%), general merchandise (-1.95%), and banks (-1.52%). Regarding basis, the basis of all four major stock indices weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.10% and -2.10%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -8.60% and -12.90%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated slightly in the previous trading day, with a slight decline. Trading volume in both markets increased slightly compared to the previous day. Looking at the primary sectors, the communications sector, which had previously performed strongly, declined yesterday due to US restrictions, while sectors like real estate and steel strengthened due to the recent easing of real estate policies in various cities. In terms of index performance, small and medium-sized stocks slightly outperformed the broader market. The central bank released August financial data on Friday, showing a further narrowing of the M2-M1 spread. Continued easing of monetary liquidity may favor small and medium-sized stock indices. From September 14th to 17th, China and the United States will hold another round of talks on trade and other economic issues. While the results are currently expected to be positive, they remain under scrutiny. IC and IM are expected to continue their upward trend driven by positive sentiment, and it is recommended to maintain long positions.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.43%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.09%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.9%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.57%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.49%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.35%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.31%, and the SZSE 100 ETF fell 1.13%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 83.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best-performing were nonferrous metals (1.96%), real estate (1.51%), and steel (1.41%). The worst-performing sectors were beauty care (-1.52%), general merchandise (-1.95%), and communications (-2.13%). The overall implied volatility of options has entered a downward range, and the cost-effectiveness of put option strategies has increased. You can consider building positions in batches and holding a double-sell strategy for options; if the fundamentals such as the macro economy and the profits of listed companies improve, there will be sufficient upside space. The market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward in the long term. You can pay attention to the covered call strategy of stock index futures long positions combined with selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: On Friday, Treasury bond futures saw divergent trading. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract rose 0.38%, the 10-year contract rose 0.06%, the 5-year contract rose 0.01%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.03%. The yield on the most active 30-year bond fell 1.8 basis points to 2.079%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond fell 0.8 basis points to 1.7895%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond rose 1 basis point to 1.42%. Inter-product spreads for futures contracts: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by -0.169 yuan, -0.045 yuan, and -0.245 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Sentiment continues to recover, with long-term bonds strong and short-term bonds weak, likely supported by the central bank's increased outright reverse repos and a weakening equity market. August's economic and financial data were generally lackluster and may provide little guidance on fundamentals. The bond market is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the correction is far from over. Be wary of a flattening of the interest rate curve, as there is a risk of unexpected liquidity tightening. Regarding operations, a cautious wait-and-see approach is recommended, with opportunities to short TS. A cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is short-steep and long-flat. Subsequently, a short-TS (short-long) and long-T (long-term) arbitrage strategy is gradually introduced. Currently, it offers value for money, pending clear signals of tightening liquidity. Hedging strategy: While the net basis has declined, the current level remains high, making short arbitrage difficult. It is recommended to reduce current bond positions to mitigate potential liquidity risks.
Iron Ore: 1. Last week, supply of the five major steel varieties reached 8.5724 million tons, a weekly decrease of 34,100 tons, or 0.4%. Total inventories stood at 15.1461 million tons, a weekly increase of 139,100 tons, or 0.93%. Weekly consumption was 8.4333 million tons, up 1.9%. 2. Hangzhou's construction steel inventories surged, reaching a post-winter stockpiling high. This week, Hangzhou's construction steel inventories stood at approximately 1.2092 million tons, up 136,300 tons from the previous week and a 12.7% week-on-week increase. Compared to last year, current market inventories are significantly higher than the same period last year, increasing by approximately 91.81%. 3. Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.510 million tons of steel in August, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month and a 3.3% month-on-month decrease. Cumulative steel exports from January to August totaled 77.490 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From September 1 to September 7, 2025, Mysteel reported global iron ore shipments totaling 27.562 million tons, a decrease of 8.006 million tons from the previous month. Total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 23.296 million tons, a decrease of 5.725 million tons from the previous month. From September 1 to September 7, 2025, total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports totaled 25.729 million tons, a decrease of 721,000 tons from the previous month. Total iron ore arrivals at 45 Chinese ports totaled 24.480 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons from the previous month. Total iron ore arrivals at the six northern ports totaled 13.200 million tons, an increase of 192,000 tons from the previous month. On September 12th, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills and found that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points from the previous week and 6.20 percentage points year-on-year. Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization was 90.18%, up 4.39 percentage points from the previous week and 6.29 percentage points year-on-year. Steel mill profitability was 60.17%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and up 54.11 percentage points year-on-year. Average daily molten iron output was 2.4055 million tons, up 117,100 tons from the previous week. Inventory: On September 12th, Mysteel statistics showed that total imported iron ore inventories at 47 ports nationwide were 144.5612 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 304,000 tons. Average daily port throughput was 3.4439 million tons, an increase of 140,600 tons. Mysteel statistics show that total imported iron ore inventories at steel mills nationwide stand at 89.93 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 531,800 tons. The current daily consumption of imported ore at sampled steel mills is 2.9665 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 159,800 tons. The inventory-to-consumption ratio is 30.32 days, a decrease of 1.53 days. From a core industry perspective, hot metal production has rebounded rapidly, but demand has shown signs of weakening marginally. Steel mill profitability has recently been declining, and inventories of the five major downstream materials continue to accumulate. However, whether this impact will trickle down to upstream producers remains to be seen. Overall, the rebound in hot metal prices continues to support ore prices, and with steel mills restocking ahead of the National Day holiday, short-term volatility in iron ore prices is advisable. However, the sustainability of the divergence in the steel ore price trend may be questionable, and there is a certain risk of further declines in iron ore prices. Focus on changes in steel mill profitability and peak season demand.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated strongly on Friday evening. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, current smelter raw material inventories remain adequate, while recyclers are cautious about falling prices and seeking higher prices, leading to weak performance of scrap batteries. Some recycled lead refineries are scheduled to continue suspending production for maintenance, making it difficult for them to shift to a low-load operation in the short term. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are expected to stabilize due to the replenishment of imported ore. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, while those in East China remain stable, resulting in a tight overall supply situation. On the demand side, purchasing demand in the battery industry is unlikely to see a significant improvement, and overall restocking is limited. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, but fundamental improvements are limited, keeping lead prices primarily volatile at low levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Shanghai zinc prices fluctuated strongly on Friday evening. Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve held its September interest rate meeting on Thursday. Previous economic data has already confirmed the possibility of a rate cut, and macroeconomic conditions remain supportive until the cut is implemented. From a fundamental perspective, domestic concentrate TC prices remain under pressure, currently averaging between 3,500 and 4,100 yuan per ton of metal. Imported TC prices have generally stabilized. On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu research, additional refinery maintenance in Henan and Guangxi provinces is underway this month, with further planned maintenance in Inner Mongolia in the middle and later part of the month. However, overall demand remains primarily incremental. On the demand side, downstream zinc demand improved during the "Golden September" period, but current terminal orders are insufficient, and peak season quality is somewhat subpar. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment remains supportive, while fundamentals are suppressing upward movement, leading to widespread price fluctuations.
Rebar: Rebar production fell by 67,500 tons to 2.1193 million tons last week, while social inventories increased by 185,700 tons. Factory inventories decreased slightly by 47,100 tons, resulting in a 40,000-ton decrease in apparent demand compared to the previous week. Currently, rebar fundamentals remain unchanged, primarily due to rapid inventory accumulation, which is 1.6023 million tons higher than the previous year, leading to accumulating industry conflicts. Hot metal prices remain high, and while demand for construction steel is expected to improve, high inventories are holding back futures prices, limiting any potential price recovery.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC): Last week, HRC production increased by 109,000 tons, while inventories decreased slightly by 10,200 tons. Apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons to 3.2616 million tons. The current fundamentals for HRC are relatively positive. While overall production is high, demand remains resilient. We should monitor the progress of inventory reduction. If demand remains weak, prices may continue to fall. Strategically, the reference range for rebar 2601 contracts is 3050-3200, and the reference range for HRC 2601 contracts is 3250-3400.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to forward this to "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
