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September 16th Financial Breakfast: Investors adjust positions before the Fed's decision, gold prices hit around 3685, and the United States attacked Venezuelan ships again

2025-09-16 07:31:09

In the early Asian session on Tuesday (September 16, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around $3,680 an ounce. Gold prices hit a new all-time high of $3,685.47 an ounce on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields. Investors adjusted their positions ahead of this week's key Federal Reserve meeting, which may set the tone for the rest of the year. U.S. crude oil was trading around $63.32 a barrel. Oil prices climbed thanks to the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian refineries and U.S. President Trump's pressure on NATO countries to stop buying Russian oil.

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Focus on the day



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stock market


All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record intraday highs, as investors awaited a key Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.

Shares of Tesla Inc rose 3.6% after a regulatory filing showed Chief Executive Elon Musk spent nearly $1 billion on Friday to increase his stake in the electric car maker. Google parent Alphabet Inc hit a record high, with its market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion.

Market sentiment this week is dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17. Recent economic data has pointed to a weakening labor market, leading to widespread expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed. "The market is betting on a 'Goldilocks' scenario where the job market is just weak enough to prompt the Fed to initiate a series of rate cuts without derailing overall economic growth," said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. "I think the market will be disappointed if the Fed doesn't signal that they're going to continue cutting rates." On Monday, traders were pricing in a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at this week's meeting.

Tesla's gains pushed the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector up 1.1% to a nearly nine-month high, while Alphabet led the communication services sector up 2.33%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11% to 45,883.45 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.47% to 6,615.28 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.94% to 22,348.75 points.

Wall Street's three main indexes all posted weekly gains in the previous session, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting record highs intraday on Friday as technology-related stocks remained resilient. Losses in McDonald's and Procter & Gamble dragged down the Dow.

CoreWeave shares surged 7.6% after the data center operator signed a deal with Nvidia Corp. that guarantees Nvidia will buy any excess cloud capacity not sold to customers. The deal was initially valued at $6.3 billion.

Gold Market


Gold prices hit a record high on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields as investors adjusted their positions ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting this week that is likely to set the tone for the rest of the year.

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Spot gold was trading at $3,680.80 an ounce, up 1.1%, having earlier hit a record high of $3,685.39. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.8% to $3,719.00.

The dollar index fell 0.3 percent to its lowest in a week, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, which would be the first rate cut since December, with some believing a 50 basis point cut will be in the cards. "A 25 basis point cut is pretty much priced in at this point," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, adding that one or two more rate cuts are possible before the end of the year. He said the next upside target for gold in the short term is $3,700, followed by $3,730 and $3,743.

The Federal Reserve will meet under unusual pressure as President Trump seeks to exert greater influence over policy. The Senate also left room for Trump's economic adviser, Milan, to join the rate-setting committee in time for Wednesday's vote.

Spot silver was at $42.62 per ounce, up 1.1%; platinum was at $1,400.77, up 0.7%; and palladium was at $1,193.21, down 0.3%.

Oil Market


Oil prices settled higher on Monday as investors assessed the impact of a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian refineries and U.S. President Donald Trump's pressure on NATO nations to stop buying Russian oil.

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Brent crude futures closed up 0.67% at $67.44 a barrel, while U.S. crude settled up 0.97% at $63.30 a barrel.

Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and increasing pressure from Trump on buyers of Russian crude boosted oil prices on Monday.

One of Russia's largest oil refineries, in the northwestern town of Kirishi, has halted a key processing unit after being attacked by a Ukrainian drone over the weekend, two industry sources said on Monday.

Both crude contracts rose more than 1% last week as Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including on the largest oil export terminal in Primorsk.

Primorsk can load about 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, while the Kirishi refinery processes about 355,000 barrels of Russian crude per day, equivalent to 6.4% of the country's total crude oil production.

Trump said on Saturday that the United States is prepared to impose new energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil and implement similar measures.

Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at its September 16-17 meeting, where it is expected to ease monetary policy. Lower borrowing costs could boost fuel demand.

The dollar fell against other currencies on Monday, which could boost demand for crude oil because a weaker dollar makes oil less expensive for holders of other currencies.

foreign exchange market


The dollar weakened across the board on Monday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts at its meeting this week and as U.S. President Trump renewed calls for faster monetary easing.

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Trump on Monday called on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut benchmark interest rates "even more aggressively" and also mentioned the housing market.

Traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 and 17, and are pricing in around a 5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

"What we're seeing is just a broad lack of confidence, with traders relatively willing to wait and see the outcome of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday," said Michael Brown, market analyst at London-based online broker Pepperstone. "In the meantime, market moves are likely to be driven primarily by positioning adjustments, which will last for a day or two or so," Brown said. The dollar index fell 0.4% to hit its lowest level in nearly a week at 97.273.

The dollar fell 0.2% against the yen to 147.335 yen, while the euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1771. Investors will analyze the Fed's "dot plot" projections and guidance from Powell to judge the extent and pace of further policy easing.

"The economic forecast and press conference are likely to emphasize that this is an 'insurance' rate cut and the pace of easing will remain gradual," Nomura analysts said in a note on Monday.

Investors will also be watching interest rate decisions in Japan, Britain, Canada and Norway later this week.

Both the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with analysts focusing on the BoE's plans to slow the pace of its reduction in government bond holdings and comments from the Bank of Japan for possible clues on the likelihood of rate hikes for the rest of the year.

Fitch Ratings downgraded France's sovereign credit rating late Friday due to concerns about the government's growing debt burden. The euro zone's second-largest economy lost its AA- rating. The euro was largely unmoved on Monday by the news.

Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, said the downgrade had been largely priced in by the market.

Data showed that speculative net long positions in the euro against the dollar continued to remain strong, rising to $18.4 billion in the week ending September 8, close to the highest level in two years.

Expectations of Federal Reserve easing and dimming prospects for further European Central Bank rate cuts also supported the euro’s resilience. Sterling rose 0.4% to $1.3606, its highest since early July.

International News


Maduro accuses the US of aggression: Venezuela refuses to be an "oil colony"


On September 15th, local time, Venezuelan President Maduro stated at a press conference that five weeks ago, Venezuela was threatened by missile ships and submarines, facing the threat of bombing, invasion, and occupation. The US's actions against Venezuela were aggression, not simply tensions. This was a US aggression against Venezuela at the judicial and political levels, based entirely on pretexts and lies. Maduro emphasized that the US claim of "Venezuela trafficking drugs" was a lie. All cocaine shipped to the US and Europe comes from Colombia. The US legally produces synthetic super marijuana and has no right to accuse Venezuela. Venezuela has always outlawed drug-related activities and will never legalize them. The US, which suffers from the effects of drugs like fentanyl and other drugs annually, fabricates lies about Venezuela. Its real purpose is "to invade our country, impose colonial rule, and force regime change in order to steal our vast oil and gas wealth," rather than combating the drug trade. (CCTV News)

Brazilian officials have yet to receive visas to travel to the United Nations General Assembly

On the 15th local time, the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that due to tense trade and diplomatic relations with the US government, Brazilian officials have not yet obtained US visas and will be unable to attend the UN General Assembly general debate in New York next week. Brazilian Foreign Ministry officials stated that the US refusal to issue visas would constitute an "illegal act." UN Secretary-General's spokesman Stephane Dujarric expressed concern about the visa delay. (CCTV News)

Trump says US strikes Venezuelan drug ship again

US President Donald Trump said the United States had attacked a second drug-carrying ship from Venezuela, demonstrating its resolve to continue its attacks. These attacks have heightened tensions between the US and Venezuela and raised questions about their legitimacy. In a social media post, Trump wrote that the US military had "conducted a second kinetic strike against confirmed, extremely violent drug cartels and narco-terrorists" in the US Southern Command area of responsibility. "This strike occurred while these confirmed narco-terrorists from Venezuela were transporting illegal drugs in international waters," he wrote. The post included a link to a video showing a boat bobbing in unidentified waters. Seconds later, it was engulfed in a massive fireball.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is hiring part-time employees to collect information for CPI data.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is hiring price data collectors to gather data for a key inflation indicator. Due to staff losses, the indicator is increasingly relying on a statistical imputation method to fill data gaps. The agency has posted job postings nationwide for 25 part-time economic assistants who will be responsible for collecting price data for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The positions will be located in major metropolitan areas such as New York, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Chicago. These positions are critical for obtaining price information from local businesses. "If these positions are filled quickly, the proportion of imputed prices in the CPI will likely decline significantly in the coming months, which will significantly reduce the margin of error of the current estimate," said Omer Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC, an inflation research firm. The BLS said in June that it had begun suspending price collection in three metropolitan areas because the agency lacked sufficient resources in those areas.

OpenAI unveils new GPT-5 model for Codex programming agent

Codex, OpenAI's solution for AI coding agents like GitHub Copilot and Claude Code, is getting a major update today. At the heart of the update is GPT-5-Codex, a version of OpenAI's latest GPT-5 model that OpenAI has optimized specifically for agent software engineering. The new model itself is noteworthy, but the team has also added a series of new features to Codex. These include a rebuilt Codex CLI (now centered around agent workflows); new IDE extensions that bring Codex to tools like VS Code, Cursor, and other VS Code branches; integration with GitHub for code reviews; and workflow updates to the Codex web version. Codex is accessible to users of OpenAI ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, Edu, and Enterprise plans, with usage limits adjusted based on the plan the user subscribes to. OpenAI specifies that Plus, Edu, and Business plans will cover "several focused programming sessions per week," while users of the Pro plan will enjoy "a full week of work covering multiple projects."

Ukrainian government approves draft state budget for 2026

On September 15th, local time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Svirizenko announced that the Ukrainian government has approved the draft state budget for 2026, which will be submitted to parliament for deliberation. The budget's top priority is national defense, security, and social stability. The draft budget projects total expenditures of 4.8 trillion hryvnia (an increase of 415 billion hryvnia from 2025), revenues of 2.826 trillion hryvnia (an increase of 446.8 billion hryvnia, or 18.8% from 2025), and external financing needs of 2.79 trillion hryvnia. Defense spending, at 2.8 trillion hryvnia, accounts for 27.2% of GDP and will fund military benefits, air defense development, and the development and production of domestic weapons. Furthermore, budgets for social sectors such as education, scientific research, and healthcare have all seen increases, with 17.9 billion hryvnia allocated for veterans' policies. The budget also covers agriculture, culture, and other areas to support economic development and national reconstruction.

US lowers tariffs on Japanese auto imports

On the 15th local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced that the import tariff on Japanese cars will be reduced to 15% from 0:01 a.m. Eastern Time on the 16th (13:01 p.m. Japan Time on the 16th).

Domestic News


Emerging market ETFs saw capital inflows into China for the fifth consecutive week, ranking first in terms of capital inflows.

Investors continued to buy emerging market stock and bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows. Data shows that in the week ending September 12, US-listed emerging market ETFs investing in developing countries and specific countries saw inflows totaling $2.17 billion, compared to $1.02 billion the previous week. Year-to-date, inflows total $19.8 billion. Equity ETFs saw inflows of $1.45 billion, while bond ETFs saw inflows of $716.3 million, with total assets increasing from $422.3 billion to $437.5 billion. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 3.9% last week to 1,325.73, its highest level since July 22, 2021. By market, China saw the largest inflows, at $653.9 million, while Argentina, led by the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, saw the largest outflows, at $6.99 million.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3678.32

-0.41

(-0.01%)

XAG

42.439

-0.215

(-0.50%)

CONC

63.45

0.15

(0.24%)

OILC

67.56

0.14

(0.21%)

USD

97.235

-0.104

(-0.11%)

EURUSD

1.1776

0.0015

(0.13%)

GBPUSD

1.3611

0.0012

(0.09%)

USDCNH

7.1162

-0.0011

(-0.02%)

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