GBP/JPY fell back above the 200 mark, with focus on UK CPI and the Bank of Japan's decision
2025-09-16 13:41:01
GBP/JPY saw a pullback on Tuesday, briefly retreating from the previous day's intraday high of 200.75. Despite this, the pair remained above the psychologically important 200.00 level, suggesting continued buying interest.
A key driver of market sentiment will be the upcoming UK inflation data. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be in the spotlight, as a stronger-than-expected reading could reduce the likelihood of an immediate interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), supporting the British pound.
A London-based foreign exchange analyst said: "If CPI remains resilient, it will provide new support for the pound in the short term and GBP/JPY may test its highs again."
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened overall, driven by rising market expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike. Investors are confident the BoJ will continue its policy normalization path despite domestic political uncertainty. This expectation provided fundamental support for the JPY, putting pressure on the GBP/JPY pair.
However, market concerns about the timing and pace of interest rate hikes may limit the room for further strengthening of the yen.
Looking at the daily chart, GBP/JPY has retreated after encountering resistance near 200.75 and is currently fluctuating above the 200 mark. Above, resistance lies in the 200.80–201.00 range, a break of which could lead to new highs. Below, support lies in the 199.50–199.20 area, a break of which could trigger further profit-taking.
The daily RSI is still at a high level, but has not entered the extreme overbought area, indicating that although the short-term upward momentum has slowed down, the trend has not yet reversed.
A strategist at a Tokyo-based investment bank noted: "GBP/JPY may consolidate in the 199.50 to 201.00 range in the short term, with the direction of the breakthrough likely to depend on UK CPI results and BoE policy guidance."
Editor's comments:
The current GBP/JPY trend is driven by two factors: UK inflation data determines the direction of the pound, while expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike influence the strength of the yen. In the short term, if UK CPI figures are strong, the pound could resume its upward trend and revisit the 201 mark.
If the data is weak, the market may pre-prioritize the BoE's dovish path, and GBP/JPY may face the risk of further correction. Overall, the currency pair will remain in a high-level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to fundamental trigger points.
A key driver of market sentiment will be the upcoming UK inflation data. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be in the spotlight, as a stronger-than-expected reading could reduce the likelihood of an immediate interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), supporting the British pound.
A London-based foreign exchange analyst said: "If CPI remains resilient, it will provide new support for the pound in the short term and GBP/JPY may test its highs again."
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened overall, driven by rising market expectations for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike. Investors are confident the BoJ will continue its policy normalization path despite domestic political uncertainty. This expectation provided fundamental support for the JPY, putting pressure on the GBP/JPY pair.
However, market concerns about the timing and pace of interest rate hikes may limit the room for further strengthening of the yen.
Looking at the daily chart, GBP/JPY has retreated after encountering resistance near 200.75 and is currently fluctuating above the 200 mark. Above, resistance lies in the 200.80–201.00 range, a break of which could lead to new highs. Below, support lies in the 199.50–199.20 area, a break of which could trigger further profit-taking.
The daily RSI is still at a high level, but has not entered the extreme overbought area, indicating that although the short-term upward momentum has slowed down, the trend has not yet reversed.
A strategist at a Tokyo-based investment bank noted: "GBP/JPY may consolidate in the 199.50 to 201.00 range in the short term, with the direction of the breakthrough likely to depend on UK CPI results and BoE policy guidance."
Editor's comments:
The current GBP/JPY trend is driven by two factors: UK inflation data determines the direction of the pound, while expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike influence the strength of the yen. In the short term, if UK CPI figures are strong, the pound could resume its upward trend and revisit the 201 mark.
If the data is weak, the market may pre-prioritize the BoE's dovish path, and GBP/JPY may face the risk of further correction. Overall, the currency pair will remain in a high-level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to fundamental trigger points.
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